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Will shifting loyalties swing east UP elections?
In eastern UP, in what seems like an election on a knife edge, the movement of these leaders and their ability to bring their castes along with them, may well define the election.
Suyash Jaiswal has a small garment shop close to the main road that leads into Padrauna from the district headquarters of Kushinagar. The shop once had a name, “Manisha Vastralaya”, but the board strung across its ramshackle entrance was stolen two months ago, and is yet to be replaced. Across the road is a new black multi-floored building with shining glass that says “Reliance Trends”, and boasts of a relatively new Jawed Habib Salon and Spa.
Jaiswal has a term for his town. “This is a ‘khichdi’. You want a mall, you have it. You want small traders like me with nowhere to go, you have that. You want desperate poverty and chaos, you have that too. Now, it’s politics is khichdi too.” Khichdi is a dish made from rice, lentils, and just about any vegetables and spices that the cook can find, and the term has come to mean mishmash.
“Ye dekho, ye dekho (see this, see this),” Jaiswal breaks off suddenly in the middle of conversation to point to evidence of his hypothesis passing before us. It is a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) campaign tempo, swathed in orange, blaring out a speech in support of the party. Its primary banner has a host of faces in the background, from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to chief minister Yogi Adityanath. But front and centre are two faces. One is RPN Singh, former Congress Union minister, and a recent inductee into the BJP. Next to him is the BJP candidate from Padrauna, Singh’s close aide who was to be the Congress candidate earlier, Manish Jaiswal ‘Mantu’.
Mantu has replaced the former BJP state minister and OBC leader Swami Prasad Maurya, who joined the Samajwadi Party (SP) in a move that caused an earthquake in Uttar Pradesh politics. Maurya has chosen not to fight from Padrauna, but neighbouring Fazilnagar, where he is facing opposition not just from the BJP; Ilyas Ansari, a lifelong SP worker who thought he would get the ticket but was replaced, and is now fighting as the BSP candidate. In eastern Uttar Pradesh, in what seems like an election on a knife edge, the movement of these leaders and their ability to bring their castes along with them, may well define the election.
Suyash Jaiswal is, then, understandably confused. A lifelong Congress supporter of RPN Singh and Manish Jaiswal, he can either follow the leaders to the BJP, or vote against the party he has despised all of his 36 years. “I cannot stand the BJP’s politics. They are communal, and they have shown that for traders like me, there is nothing they are offering this election. I want to vote against them but eventually, I think I will follow RPN Singh and Mantu. If they win, perhaps it will be more beneficial for me.”
Around 25km away, at an SP office in the district headquarters of Kushinagar, district secretary Wajid Ali begins nearly every sentence with the words, “Jhoot kyun bolun? (Why should I lie).” Kushnagar has six seats, none of which are with the Samajwadi Party currently. Four, including Kushinagar, are with the BJP, one with the Congress (state president Ajay Kumar Lallu), and one with the SBSP, now an SP ally. In SP’s calculations, it is crucial to overturn the results in the district which goes to vote on Thursday, March 3. But, Ali nods sagely and admits that the move of RPN Singh to the BJP has caused some damage. “Why should I lie? RPN Singh was dormant in the Congress. Lekin BJP mein raja se praja ho gaye hai. (He has gone from king to subject). He is roaming around, meeting people. So Padrauna is a fight. But I can say in at least four of six, we are clearly ahead. Earlier we had thought all six will be ours,” Ali said.
If Swami Prasad Maurya’s induction into the SP was a big talking point in Kushinagar, what has since dominated political conversation is his decision to abandon Padrauna, of which he was a two-time sitting MLA, first from the BSP and then the BJP. The Maurya campaign has not been able to shake off the suspicion that he was “afraid” he would lose Padrauna after RPN Singh’s induction. Yet, the Fazilnagar constituency, the SP argues, was a tactical decision, in part because of a large number of Muslims and Maurya OBC’s, apart from other communities that include Yadavs. “So many candidates have changed seats from the BJP. Does anyone ask them? Swamiji has to campaign all over the state for us, and the decision is a correct one,” Ali said.
In Fazilnagar, Maurya’s arrival into the SP has meant a shift in the Khushwaha vote towards the SP; the community wholly backed the BJP in 2017 and 2019. At a village called Indarpatti, right outside a shop, “Khushwaha Kisan Store” is a group of Kushwahas, who are from the Maurya caste. Of the six sitting there, five will vote for the SP, and name a variety of reasons for doing so. There isn’t great anger against the BJP, but there is concern at inflation, stray cattle, a fear of rampant privatisation, a lack of employment that means young men in the village have left for as far as Dubai and Riyadh for work. Importantly, 28-year-old Anil Kushwaha says, the deciding factor is the move of SP Maurya to the SP. “He is our biggest leader, and we have to strengthen the biraadari (brotherhood) by voting for him. In this village, 100% Kushwahas voted for the BJP. Now, at least 70% will vote for the SP,” he said.
While that means Maurya can breathe a sigh of relief, there is a caveat (like there always is in UP). Across Kushinagar, the poorest communities, those lowest in caste hierarchy, from the Musahars to Gonds, typically landless and with very little cattle, are steadfastly behind the BJP. Niti Ayog’s Multi Dimensional Poverty Index says 42.94% of the district is multi-dimentionally poor. At the Musahar Basti in Doghra, Kishunath (who uses only one name)wants visitors to visit his dilapidated home, unhappy that no government housing has reached him. But what has, is free ration, twice a month. “They give everything. 5kg of rice, wheat, salt, and oil. And there is no theft or dilution. The oil is pure,” he says. A few kilometres away, Chottelal Gond is overcome with emotion, tears streaming down his face. A painter and a daily wage labourer, just the thought of the lockdown has triggered him, the memory of months of no work. But these are not just tears of sorrow, but of gratitude too. “This government gave us ration, kept us alive when we could all have died. Nobody else thinks of the poor. Will Akhilesh do that? Modi and Yogi saved us, and they must not lose,” he said.
Which is why the BJP has increasingly focused on beneficiaries (or “labharati” as it calls them) in the later rounds of the elections.
