E-Paper
Giving India an energy boost
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's statement on civil nuclear energy cooperation with the US has, at last, put the issue in perspective: the proposed India-US nuclear agreement is about security, but not from the kind that comes from nuclear weapons.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's statement on civil nuclear energy cooperation with the US has, at last, put the issue in perspective: the proposed India-US nuclear agreement is about security, but not from the kind that comes from nuclear weapons. It is about assuring energy security for the country. India's needs are patently clear, especially to the man who wants to boost economic growth to double digits. At present, our per capita income is 45 per cent that of China and 25 per cent of Brazil.
Just 25 years from now, by 2030, we can reach a little above the level of present-day Brazil. But there is a big 'if' that stares us in the face when we look at the energy matrix: per capita electricity usage in India is just 440 units, as against 1,950 in Brazil; petroleum consumption is 111 kilograms, as against 600 in Brazil. So to reach Brazil's present level by 2030, we need to sharply increase energy capacity through all available routes — coal, hydrocarbons and nuclear. But while there is need to boost thermal capacity by a factor of six and natural gas usage eight-fold, nuclear power capacity must grow 15-fold to 50,000 Mwe. According to an expert committee's preliminary estimates, India has to be prepared to boost this further to 200,000 MWe by 2050. These are staggering numbers and pose a stupendous challenge.
By the Department of Atomic Energy's (DAE) own estimates, the promise of India's vast thorium reserves can only begin to be realised by 2035, assuming that stage two fast breeder and stage three thorium-uranium technologies work as planned. Given the uncertainties associated with R&D projects, to place all our bets on the DAE's schemes would be a huge gamble. It is in this backdrop that we must see the India-US deal: a means of achieving a goal that will profoundly affect the life of every Indian, without compromising in any way the national security dividends that accrue from our nuclear programme.
