Mamata boat rocks but may sail through

The biggest issue in this largely urban constituency is the person whom the electorate has been sending to the Lok Sabha since 1991. Mamata Banerjee ? the person, her actions and inactions, have marked her political career ? is the prime topic of debate in Kolkata-South.

The biggest issue in this largely urban constituency is the person whom the electorate has been sending to the Lok Sabha since 1991. Mamata Banerjee — the person, her actions and inactions, and the flip-flops that have marked her political career — is the prime topic of debate in Kolkata-South.

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The Trinamool represents six of the seven assembly segments that make up this Lok Sabha constituency. But the Left has a dominating presence in two segments — Ballygunge and Sonarpur — and a substantial one in Tollygunge and Dhakuria.

The mercurial Trinamool chief had a smooth sailing in the last four elections, polling over 65 per cent votes each time. She had, admittedly, captured the imagination of the urban middle-class voters with her strident anti-Left stand and clean image. She had also dented some Left bastions in Tollygunge and Dhakuria with her down-to-earth and simple persona.

But 2004 promises to be a different ball game. Mamata's sheen has worn off among substantial segments of the middle-class voters, thanks largely to her political fickleness and inability to do anything much for her constituency.

Also Rabin Deb, the two-time CPI(M) legislator from Ballygunj, has thrown a stiff challenge to her. Deb has earned a formidable reputation for his organisational and 'booth management' (a euphemism for rigging) skills.

To make matters worse, Nafisa Ali (Congress), though not attracting crowds at her election meetings, has an appeal among the upper-middle and affluent classes which form a substantial chunk of the electorate in six of the seven assembly segments and have voted for Mamata in the past.

Both Ali and Deb have launched virulent attacks against Mamata. She has been accused of being unprincipled, whimsical and even dictatorial, of providing the BJP a launching pad in West Bengal and of neglecting her constituency. Mamata, they charge, has not done anything for Kolkata-South though she could easily have done so as a minister in the Union government. Hunger for power and attention drives all her actions, they add. And these charges have gone quite well with many.

Not that anyone is writing off the Trinamool chief. Observers agree that she may well win for the fifth time, but with a much-reduced margin. There are no doubts about her honesty -- only her political vacillations and alleged neglect of this constituency bear scrutiny. Women support her and so do many in the slums that pockmark this swathe of middle-class and affluent voters. Those opposed to the Left have to, albeit grudgingly, vote for her.

It remains to be seen if such support will be enough to counter the growing disillusionment among many with the Trinamool chief.

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** Mamata (Trinamool): Only NDA can provide a stable government

** Nafisa (Cong): Power and post is what she (Mamata) is after

** Rabin Deb (CPM): She (Mamata) is power-hungry, unprincipled