Lok Sabha Elections 2019: Face-off between BJP and BSP-SP in GB Nagar, suggests data - Hindustan Times
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Lok Sabha Elections 2019: Face-off between BJP and BSP-SP in GB Nagar, suggests data

Hindustan Times, Noida | By
Mar 27, 2019 04:46 PM IST

Political analysts are of the view that to win the seat this year, the BJP needs to fare better than the 2014 general elections in all five assembly segments as it is pitted against the combined strength of the SP-BSP alliance.

Data from the general election results of 2009 and 2014 suggests that the upcoming Lok Sabha elections will be a direct contest between the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) - Samajwadi Party (SP) alliance and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), given the 13 candidates in the fray after the scrutiny of nomination papers for the Gautam Buddha Nagar constituency on Tuesday.

BJP candidate from the Gautam Budh Nagar Dr. Mahesh Sharma during the public rally , in Noida, on Sunday, March 24, 2019.(Virendra Singh Gosain/HT PHOTO)
BJP candidate from the Gautam Budh Nagar Dr. Mahesh Sharma during the public rally , in Noida, on Sunday, March 24, 2019.(Virendra Singh Gosain/HT PHOTO)

According to the poll result data of 2009 and 2014 general elections, a majority of voters in Noida and Khurja had backed the BJP’S candidate and sitting MP Dr Mahesh Sharma while Dadri, Sikandrabad and Jewar had been a traditional stronghold of BSP and SP.

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Both parties have now formed an alliance in the state and the BSP has fielded 37-year-old Satveer Nagar, a political green horn from party chief Mayawati’s home district.

The Gautam Buddh Nagar constituency was carved out of the Khurja constituency in 2009. It has three assembly segments – Noida, Dadri and Jewar – in Gautam Budh Nagar district and two segments – Khurja and Sikandrabad – in Bulandshahr district.

The Congress, which did not performed so well in the last two general elections, has fielded Dr Arvind Singh Chauhan, 30, an ex-chancellor of the Noida International University, which is owned by his family. Nomination of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) candidate Shweta Sharma got cancelled during scrutiny on Tuesday.

The Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (Lohia), a political party formed by Shivpal Singh Yadav, has fielded Jitendra Singh Gujar from this seat.

“Noida and Khurja can be considered as strong bastions of BJP if we analyse the voting pattern of the 2009 and 2014 general elections. However, if we look at the data of the other three segments, Dadri, Sikandrabad and Jewar, then voters in these three areas have preferred SP and BSP as compared to BJP in both 2009 and

2014 general elections. All parties are canvassing in all areas, be it rural or urban. It remains to be seen who gets the maximum support,” PP Nagar president of Noida Bar Association, who has been observing elections since last 30 years, said.

This year, there are a total of 2,297,478 voters in the Gautam Buddh Nagar constituency that goes to polls on April 11.

According to the data of 2009 and 2014 polls, candidates of other parties, including the Congress and independents, have not performed well. Political analysts are of the view that to win the seat this year, the BJP needs to fare better than the 2014 general elections in all five assembly segments as it is pitted against the combined strength of the SP-BSP alliance.

The BJP’S Dr Mahesh Sharma had won the seat by securing 599,702 votes, with a vote share of 50 % in the 2014 elections. The SP’S candidate had secured 319,490 by getting 26.64% vote share while the BSP had secured 198,237 votes with a 16.53% vote share. The BJP’S handsome margin had been aided by the Congress’ Ramesh Chand Tomar who had switched over to the BJP just before polls, making it a triangular contest. The Congress had still been able to secure 12,727 votes with a 1.06 % vote share.

In 2009, BSP’S Surendra Singh Nagar had defeated BJP’S Dr Mahesh Sharma by 15,904 votes in a four-corner contest. Nagar had secured 245,613 votes with a 33.24 % vote share and BJP had got 229,709 votes with a 31.08 % vote share. The SP had got 118,584 votes with a 16.05 % vote share while Congress had stood fourth with 116,230 votes and a 15.73 % vote share.

“If the BSP-SP alliance candidate is able to secure votes as per their expectations then only can they think of winning. If Gujjars, Yadavs, Dalits and Muslims do not vote aggressively for the alliance candidate then the BJP holds an edge. The challenge for the BJP is to not only to retain its 2014 performanc, but supersede it in the 2019 polls to win this seat. However, in general elections, people vote on national issues more than on the basis of the caste of a candidate, which is what makes it an interesting contest,” Anup Khanna, a social activist, who had fought the Noida Assembly election in 2012, said.

The BJP said it is sure of victory as, in the 2014 general polls, it had got 599,702 votes against 517,727 votes secured by the SP and BSP combined. BJP’S Dr Mahesh Sharma is sure of repeating his feat of last elections.

“The BSP and SP alliance will not affect our victory because voters are with us. We got more than 50% of votes in 2014 and we will better our performance in 2019 because our government has done excellent work in last five years. People have rejected the SP-BSP alliance. More than four lakh new voters in this constituency will vote for us and increase the victory margin in 2019. BSP and SP are not even fighting together because their workers have differences,” said Dr Mahesh Sharma, sitting MP from BJP.

BSP and SP leaders are however confident of victory due to strong cadre base of voters. Rejecting Dr Mahesh Sharma’s charge of differences among both party workers, Lakhmi Singh, president of BSP’S Gautam Budh Nagar unit said, “BJP leaders are not aware of ground realities because public is with our alliance candidate. All our leaders, from SP and BSP, are working together. We are going to win this seat with a huge margin because the public has started hating BJP due to central government’s misdeeds.”

However, the Congress this time elections may turn out to be the X-factor. Although historical trends do not favour the principal opposition party of the country in the Gautam Buddha Nagar seat, it can spoil the chances of both, the BJP and the SP-BSP alliance.

“If Congress candidate is successful in getting a majority of Muslim votes then it will affect BSP-SP alliance candidate as they are banking upon this big chunk of minority voters to defeat the BJP. If the Congress’s candidate, who is a Rajput, gets a majority votes from his community and urban voters also vote for him, then BJP’S poll prospects are bound to get affected for sure,” said RP Singh, a retired teacher from Khurja, who has been observing elections since last 40 years.

Also Read | Candidature of Shweta Sharma, AAP’s Gautam Budh Nagar face, rejected

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  • ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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    Vinod Rajput writes on environment, infrastructure, real estate and government policies in Noida and Greater Noida. He has reported on environment and infrastructure in Delhi, Gurgaon and Panchkula in the past.

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