Expect fierce battle for 48 seats in Maharashtra in 2019

Maharashtra will be one of the states, where the BJP and the Congress will leave no stone unturned

Following the Assembly elections in five states, countdown for the 2019 Lok Sabha election has begun. The next four months will witness intense political activities, as the ruling BJP starts its campaign to retain power against a reinvigorated Congress and other Opposition parties.

A lot depends on how the BJP manages to get the Sena on board. There are indications that the two parties are looking at a tie-up. (HT file photo)

Maharashtra will be one of the states, where a fierce battle will be fought between the BJP and the Congress. After Uttar Pradesh (80), Maharashtra state has the second highest number of parliamentary seats (48).

In 2014, Maharashtra gave highest number of seats (42) to the BJP after UP (70). The general speculation is that the BJP’s seats from the Hindi belt will reduce owing to different factors, including unity. Expecting a loss in the Hindi belt, the BJP will try to retain maximum possible seats elsewhere. On the other hand, the Congress is trying to improve its tally and bring down the tally of BJP. Hence, 48 seats in the state assume a greater significance.

In the 2014 polls, the BJP led coalition won 42 seats, while Congress-NCP bagged just six. The BJP had the Shiv Sena, Ramdas Athawale-led Republican Party of India (RPI), farmers’ leader Raju Shetti’s Swabhiman Paksh and Mahadeo Jankar-led Rashtriya Samaj Paksh as its partners. The BJP won 23 seats, 18 went to the Sena and Shetti got one.

The BJP leaders in the state know that replicating the same success would be difficult. So they aim to retain at least 35 seats in 2019.

In 2004, the BJP-Sena alliance bagged 25 seats, while the Congress-NCP alliance managed to win 22. In 2009, the Congress-NCP won 25 while the Sena-BJP secured only 20. The Congress-NCP team has consistently bagged 20 to 25 seats between them since 1999.

In the current scenario, the BJP needs the Sena if it wants to win maximum seats. Mumbai and Konkan together have 13 seats, of which BJP has five and Sena has eight. The Sena-BJP alliance will be crucial if they want to win most of the seats they won in 2014. The two parties also need each other to prevent splitting of votes in Marathwada and north Maharashtra, as the two regions are likely to witness close contests. This will also be the case for a few constituencies in other regions.

A lot depends on how the BJP manages to get the Sena on board. There are indications that the two parties are looking at a tie-up, but forging an alliance with the Sena won’t be an easy task for the BJP because Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray has got more bargaining power following the BJP’s loss in three states.

In the Congress-NCP camp, coalition is the buzzword as they try to consolidate anti-BJP votes. With Athawale siding with the BJP and Prakash Ambedkar refusing to join their coalition, the Congress-NCP does not have an influential outfit on its side to attract the Dalit voters. NCP chief Sharad Pawar is keen on getting Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party on board. The Congress-NCP are also expecting some gains with inclusion of Shetti’s Swabhiman Paksh, Peasants and Workers Party (PWP), which has influence in Raigad district and Bahujan Vikas Aghadi that has following in the Vasai-Virar belt.

Beyond the alliances, there would be several issues that could tilt the balance. The BJP hopes to draw advantage from farm loan waiver, Maratha reservation and mega infrastructure push in urban areas. The Opposition has concentrated on the rural areas where agrarian crisis has caused much dissent.

As the election comes closer, both camps will step up their attack on each other. No doubt, Maharashtra will turn into a battlefield during 2019 parliamentary polls.