Maharashtra all set for straight fight between two alliances

As expected, the BJP and Sena have reunited after a gap of five years.

With the announcement of the Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena alliance, Maharashtra is all set for a straight fight between the BJP-Shiv Sena and Congress-Nationalist Congress Party alliances.

There is a bit of ambiguity over the chief minister’s (CM) post although CM Devendra Fadnavis has said that all posts would be shared equally. (HT File)

As expected, the BJP and Sena have reunited after a gap of five years. They fought the 2014 LS polls together, but snapped ties six months later as they failed to work out a seat-sharing agreement for the Assembly elections. Even though the Sena joined the governments at the Centre and state, it kept criticising the BJP in a bitter tone. With changes in circumstances, the two parties have now managed to work out an alliance again.

The efforts for the same were on for almost a year. With the alliance of Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, it became clear the BJP was unlikely to repeat its 2014 performance in Uttar Pradesh. Further developments in the Hindi belt made it all the more necessary for the BJP to prevent or minimise the damage in Maharashtra, which has the second-most Lok Sabha seats (48) after UP. The move for the BJP-Shiv Sena reunion got a push in December after the Assembly elections that saw the BJP losing power in three states.

The BJP’s success in forging an alliance with the Sena assumes significance in this context. It needs to win maximum possible seats in the state. In 2014, the saffron combine had won 42 seats. Five years later, it is not sure of repeating the performance.

Had the BJP and Sena contested separately, things would have become problematic. The alliance will prevent division of votes as the two parties share the same voter base.

The Sena has strong influence in Mumbai, its neighbouring areas and Konkan region, where the BJP would have suffered. The two parties would have also cut into each other’s votes in other cities such as Pune and Nashik. The alliance will help the BJP in its aim to win about 35 seats in Maharashtra. This has now made the task difficult for the opposition Congress-NCP.

Their plans to build a grand coalition of opposition parties have not materialised yet. The Congress is aiming to reduce BJP’s numbers and improve its tally in Maharashtra in the Lok Sabha polls. This won’t be easy now. The saffron parties have been doing well in urban areas, while the Congress-NCP have not been able to garner much support in cities that elect more than one-third of the LS seats. However, Monday’s development brings an opportunity for the two main opposition parties: The Sena was taking away a large chunk of anti-government, anti-BJP votes owing to its stand. Majority of these votes will come to the Opposition’s fold.

The Sena on its part has got a good deal. For the Lok Sabha, it got one more seat that was won by the BJP. The party’s priority is Assembly elections and it has managed to get the promise of equal share of seats (in 2014, the BJP won 122, while the Sena 63). There is a bit of ambiguity over the chief minister’s (CM) post although CM Devendra Fadnavis has said that all posts would be shared equally.

However, the challenge before Uddhav Thackeray will be to explain his U-turn to the voters. For public consumption, the Sena would cite certain issues that the BJP and Fadnavis have promised: assurance to build Ram temple, promise to shift Nanar oil refinery if people oppose it and fulfilling Sena’s promise to waive property tax for Mumbai’s middle class.

As the leaders of two parties insisted while announcing the tie-up, the saffron partners are together for the sake of Hindutva and ‘in the changed circumstances when nationalist forces need to join hands.’

Will that be enough to convince the voters?