Seven-fold increase in drought events, six-fold rise in frequency of extreme flood events in Maharashtra over 50 years: Study | Mumbai news - Hindustan Times
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Seven-fold increase in drought events, six-fold rise in frequency of extreme flood events in Maharashtra over 50 years: Study

By, Mumbai
Dec 10, 2020 11:58 PM IST

Maharashtra has witnessed a seven-fold increase in drought events and a six-fold rise in frequency of flood events in the last 50 years, according to a first-of-its-kind independent study. Conducted by not-for-profit policy research institute Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), the study assessed patterns through district-level profiling of India’s extreme climate events between 1970 and 2019.

Beed has faced major drought issues these past years.(HT Photo)
Beed has faced major drought issues these past years.(HT Photo)

CEEW found that in over 80% Maharashtra districts (home to 78.41 million), people were vulnerable to drought or drought-like situations and 10.23 million people were exposed to extreme flood events annually. In the last five decades, Mumbai has recorded a three-fold increase in the frequency of extreme flood events. The study was released on Thursday.

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Abinash Mohanty, programme lead, CEEW, and the author of the study, said, “For Maharashtra, droughts and floods have become a twin issue among major climate event concerns. Surprisingly, certain districts are witnessing droughts while others are witnessing floods during the same season.”

Extreme drought events in Maharashtra rose from 11 during 1970-79 to 14 during 1980-89; 17 during 1990-99; 23 during 2000-2010; and 79 during 2010-2019. Aurangabad, Jalna, Latur, Osmanabad, Pune, Nashik, and Nanded were identified as drought hotspot districts. Mohanty said traditionally drought-prone areas (like Aurangabad, Kolhapur, Pune, and Sangli districts) had shown a shift towards extreme flood events and storm surges over the last decade.

The data for extreme flood events in Maharashtra showed a rise from two events during 1970-79 to three during 1980-89; 10 during 1990-99; 11 during 2000-2010; and 12 during 2010-19. The hotspots for floods are Mumbai city, and Thane and Ratnagiri districts, with the island city alone witnessing two flood events per decade from 1980 to 2009. Between 2010 and 2019, flood events shot up to six and the most critical weather event for Mumbai suburban were the July 2005 floods, which claimed 1,094 lives.

Mohanty said these extreme climate events were the result of a combination of factors including unplanned urban development, encroachment upon ecosystems like mangroves and weather conditions like the urban heat island effect (warm air getting trapped and unable to circulate out), periods of intense rainfall during monsoon and increased frequency of storm surges. “The impact of extreme climate events has to be understood in the context of Mumbai and other cities along the west coast wherein rising seas potentially threaten their safety. Research studies have suggested that a one-metre rise in sea level can potentially inundate 5,763 km in India,” he said.

CEEW also found that some districts, such as Aurangabad, Mumbai, Nashik, Pune, and Thane, were witnessing a micro-climatic shift to a dry summer climate zone, resulting in an increase in cyclonic disturbances. “This has increased the intensity of storm surges, incessant rainfall and flooding,” said Mohanty.

WHAT MAHARASHTRA NEEDS TO DO?

CEEW has suggested a four-step approach to tackle the climate catastrophe, beginning with a more localised granular assessment of past events at the district level. The findings of such a survey should then be integrated into district disaster plans, and further assimilated into the state’s climate change action plan. “Until the findings are integrated, budget allocation for implementable action cannot be recognised at the district level,” said Mohanty. The next step would be to develop a state specific portal as an integrated emergency service management system for climate surveillance. “Under this government machinery, research bodies and all stakeholders can log in details of past climate hazards and develop a detailed repository to tackle future risk events,” said Mohanty. Finally, restoring natural areas and ecosystems should be restored with a focus on a climate-resilient future.

FIRST OF ITS KIND STUDY

The analysis of extreme weather events in India between 1970-2019 in CEEW’s study is based on verified government data from bodies such as the Union agriculture ministry, National Disaster Management Authority, India Meteorological Department, Press Information Bureau, and international bodies such as World Meteorological Organisation and World Health Organisation. While drought events were divided as per the Centre’s classification under meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts, flooding events were classified as riverine, coastal, flash, urban, and compounded floods.

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