Statewide lockdown should continue past April 30: Study

Maharashtra should extend its lockdown beyond April 30 as it has a high proportion of asymptomatic carriers of the Sars-Cov-2 virus, which causes Covid-19, according

Maharashtra should extend its lockdown beyond April 30 as it has a high proportion of asymptomatic carriers of the Sars-Cov-2 virus, which causes Covid-19, according to a study conducted by Dinabandhu Andrews College and Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata. Asymptomatic carriers could spread the virus without displaying symptoms themselves.

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Researchers Tridip Sardar, SK Shahid Nadim, Joydev Chattopadhyay carried out a mathematical analysis of the available data regarding the spread of Covid-19 across the country. According to their study, the lockdown would be successful in Delhi and Tamil Nadu, where 90% of the reported cases are symptomatic. In contrast, only 35% of the reported cases in Maharashtra showed symptoms. The study has been published on open-access preprint repository, Cornell University arXiv, and is under review process in Elsevier and The Lancet journals.

Explaining the study, Sardar said, “When an epidemic curve goes up suddenly, the outbreak comes under control as the number of cured patients increases. This trend is visible in the graphics of Delhi and Tamil Nadu.” In Maharashtra, however, the graph shows a steady growth in the number of cases as most patients are asymptomatic, said Sardar. “This means, even after 35 days of lockdown, the cases will be high in Maharashtra and there will be a need to extend the lockdown further,” he added.

The researchers suggested extending the lockdown in areas that have reported more cases. “Divide Maharashtra into different clusters with high rates of Covid-19 cases. Then close down the section with highest cases and provide relaxation to the remaining clusters for agro-economic and industrial growth,” said Chattopadhyay, adding that clusters where restrictions are relaxed would need continued monitoring.

The Centre is planning a similar arrangement by which districts across the country would be divided into red (more than 15), orange (less than 15) and green (zero) zones, depending upon the number of reported cases. Restrictions would be relaxed in orange and green zones, to aid the agricultural sector and the economy.

According to India Meteorological Department, this year the onset of monsoon in the state is expected earlier than usual, around June 10. “If the lockdown extends beyond May, it will be a huge loss in the agricultural sector,” said Sardar.

In Maharashtra, several rural districts and urban areas haven’t reported any cases of Covid-19 like Dhule city, Nandurbar, Solapur, Sangli-Miraj-Kupwad Municipal Corporation, Parbhani, Nanded, Akola, Gadchiroli, Wardha among others. Maharashtra is also among the states to have carried out the most number of tests and has the maximum number of testing centres at the moment.

Independent health experts have supported the idea of a phased lifting of the lockdown, based on the proportion of asymptomatic cases in an area. “In my opinion, the decision of lockdown should be a mutual decision taking into consideration the condition of uninfected districts. The government can implement the area-wise hotspot containment strategy at the state level,” said health expert Anant Bhan.

However, they have also underlined the importance of continued monitoring of those areas were restrictions are relaxed. Public health expert Dr Sanjay Pattiwar, who is with the Association of Medical Consultants, said “If we don’t implement it [lifting the lockdown], we will face economic loss and if we implement it, it can spread infection. So, as a precaution, only Industrial transportation along with social distancing and strong district surveillance should be implemented. Along with that, the government needs to start more fever clinics at relaxed clusters.”

Last week, chief minister Uddhav Thackeray announced the lockdown would continue in Maharashtra till April 30.