India's population tops 1.2 billion making it the second most populous country in the world after China.(AP)
India's population tops 1.2 billion making it the second most populous country in the world after China.(AP)

Why states should focus on improving living conditions and worry less about population decline

A demographic group, after reaching replacement rate, will continue to grow for the next few decades, mostly because the proportion of people in the reproductive age – born during the periods of fast population growth - is still high
By Manoj R Nair | Hindustan Times
PUBLISHED ON JAN 06, 2019 10:46 PM IST

Last month Andhra Pradesh chief minister, N Chandrababu Naidu, said that the state’s population had fallen by 1.6 per cent in the last 10 years. He announced that the state will offer incentives to couples willing to have more than two children and phase outlaws that bars people with more than two children from contesting elections in local administrative bodies like village panchayats.

Naidu is wrong about a population decline in Andhra Pradesh. India last counted its population in 2011 and the next enumeration will take place in 2021; other data on populations are just estimates. Andhra Pradesh’s population (including Telangana) was 76 million in 2001, a growth of 13.86% from 1991. In 2011, the state’s population was 84 million, growing 10.98% over 2001. The state’s population did not decline during the decade; what had declined was the growth rate.

India’s decennial census shows that the country’s population growth rate has been declining too. The population grew by around 21% between 1951 and 1961. In the next decade, it grew by 24.8%. After similar growth rates in the next two decades, the rate of increase has been declining; the population grew 23.87% between 1981 and 1991 and 21.54% during 1991-2001. Between 2001 and 2011 it grew 17.7%.

No state in India has reported a decline in population. Nagaland reported a 0.5% decline (Around 10,000 fewer people) between 2001 and 2011, but experts said that this could be due to flaws in earlier counts.

Paranoia about population decline exists across the world. Japan’s population is declining and China will soon join a group of countries in East Asia and Europe with a falling population. In 2017, Poland’s government told the country of some 38 million people to ‘breed like rabbits’ to reverse a possible decline in population. In the case of Poland, the decline is not far away – its fertility rate was 1.32 children per woman in 2015.

India and Andhra Pradesh are decades away from this situation. Andhra’s fertility rate is around 1.8 which is close to what is called the ‘replacement rate’ of 2.1 when the number of children is just enough to keep the population stable. The latest National Family Health Survey puts India’s fertility rate at 2.2, 1.83 in AP and 1.78 in Telangana.

Demographers said that a demographic group, after reaching replacement rate, will continue to grow for the next few decades, mostly because the proportion of people in the reproductive age – born during the periods of fast population growth - is still high. Increasing life expectancy also contributes to population growth. Andhra Pradesh, like other states in south India, Goa, West Bengal, Punjab, among others, is in the middle of this trend. “Andhra’s population will continue to grow in absolute numbers for the next two decades,” said RB Bhagat, professor and head of the department of migration and urban studies, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai.

“The state should focus on improving life expectancy (68.5 years in 2014, according to the NITI Aayog. This is similar to the Indian average of 68.5 years. Bangladesh does better, with a life expectancy of 72.16 years in 2015, according to the World Bank) Focus should be on improving health conditions, nutrition and overall development,” said Bhagat.

Naidu can also focus on primary education. The state’s literacy rate – 67% in 2011 - was the lowest in south India and is lower than the national average (74.4%).

Andhra’s worry can be explained to its fear that as the state’s share of the country’s population falls, its share from population-based dividends coming from the XV Finance Commission will decline. If Lok Sabha constituencies are redrawn to reflect the new population numbers, the state, like the rest of south India, could have fewer seats in Parliament. This is because while south India’s population has been growing, it has been increasing at a lower rate than states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh. Andhra’s share of the country’s population fell from 7.4% in 2001 to 6.99% in 2011.

Naidu said he is worried about a decline in the number of people in the working age. Population growth is linked to incomes, among other things. When countries reach middle-income status – India is close; it is now classified as a lower middle-income country – they witness a decline in the share of the working-age population. As China’s working-age population declines, India’s working age population will soon be the biggest in the world before it starts falling here too.

SHARE THIS ARTICLE ON
Close
Sushant Singh Rajput was found dead in June last year.
Sushant Singh Rajput was found dead in June last year.

3, including one who provided drugs to Sushant Singh Rajput, arrested by NCB

By hindustantimes.com | Written by Kanishka Sarkar, Hindustan Times, New Delhi
PUBLISHED ON MAR 08, 2021 01:30 PM IST
The Mumbai and Goa teams of NCB carried out two separate operations in which two foreigners were held from Mumbai while Hemant Sah alias Mahara, whose link was traced to Rajput’s case, was arrested from Goa.
Close
An elderly woman interacts with a security personnel during a Covid-19 vaccination drive, at NMMC Hospital in Vashi, Navi Mumbai.(Bachchan Kumar / HT Photo)
An elderly woman interacts with a security personnel during a Covid-19 vaccination drive, at NMMC Hospital in Vashi, Navi Mumbai.(Bachchan Kumar / HT Photo)

Women's Day: Maharashtra sets up vaccination centres only for women

PTI
PUBLISHED ON MAR 08, 2021 12:27 PM IST
  • "Every district has set up five such centres today. However, there are 19 such centres in Thane district due to higher demand there. There are 189 such centres in the state exclusively for vaccinating women," the official said.
Close
Police personnel stand guard at Mukesh Ambani's residence, a day after explosives were found in an abandoned car in its vicinity, in Mumbai on February 26. (PTI)
Police personnel stand guard at Mukesh Ambani's residence, a day after explosives were found in an abandoned car in its vicinity, in Mumbai on February 26. (PTI)

Ambani security: ATS registers murder case in SUV owner’s death

By Manish K Pathak
UPDATED ON MAR 08, 2021 10:50 AM IST
Mansukh Hiren, 48, whose body was recovered from Kalwa creek on March 5, hours after his family reported him missing, had told the police the Mahindra Scorpio found parked near Ambani’s house was his. He had reported it stolen on February 18 at Vikroli police station
Close
Rao, arrested in 2018, was admitted to the medical facility in November last year due to ill health.
Rao, arrested in 2018, was admitted to the medical facility in November last year due to ill health.

Varavara Rao goes home on bail after release from hospital

By HT Correspondent | Agencies, Hindustan Times, Mumbai
PUBLISHED ON MAR 08, 2021 03:00 AM IST
  • The 82-year-old activist, who was granted interim bail for six months on medical grounds by the Bombay high court on February 22, was discharged from the private hospital late Saturday night, they said.
Close
Formal orders to hand over the probe were issues late on Saturday night,(Praful Gangurde/HT Photo)
Formal orders to hand over the probe were issues late on Saturday night,(Praful Gangurde/HT Photo)

Mansukh Hiren death: Maha ATS registers murder case against unidentified persons

PTI, Mumbai
UPDATED ON MAR 08, 2021 11:11 AM IST
ATS registered the FIR against unidentified persons on the order of the state home department under various sections of the Indian Penal Code (IPC), including murder, disappearance of evidence, and a criminal conspiracy
Close
 (HT)
(HT)

International women’s day: The women in Maharashtra’s politics

By Eeshanpriya M S, Mumbai
PUBLISHED ON MAR 08, 2021 01:21 AM IST
HT takes a three key women leader – NCP MP Supriya Sule; Rashmi Thackeray, the chief editor of Saamana, mouthpiece of Shiv Sena; and BJP national secretary and former state minister Pankaja Munde
Close
Students in a classroom in a school in Kasheli village, Bhiwandi, which reopened after a year in February. (HT FILE)
Students in a classroom in a school in Kasheli village, Bhiwandi, which reopened after a year in February. (HT FILE)

One year of Covid-19: Online mode - a big lesson for education system

By Ankita Bhatkhande, Mumbai
PUBLISHED ON MAR 08, 2021 01:00 AM IST
As online became the only mode of learning during the lockdown months of 2020, the stark inequalities of class, caste and gender became visible, as thousands of children were forced out of the education system, and thousands more faced learning setbacks.
Close
Ajit Pawar. (Hindustan Times)
Ajit Pawar. (Hindustan Times)

Maharashtra: MVA govt all set to present its second budget today

By Surendra P Gangan, Mumbai
PUBLISHED ON MAR 08, 2021 12:56 AM IST
Deputy chief minister and finance minister Ajit Pawar will on Monday present the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi’s second budget, which is expected to register a revenue deficit of more than 1 lakh crore against the estimated revenue generation of 3,47,457 crore, in the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic and months-long subsequent lockdown
Close
Aviation sector was severely affected last year with a two-month halt in flights followed by restrictions on domestic and international operations. (HT FILE)
Aviation sector was severely affected last year with a two-month halt in flights followed by restrictions on domestic and international operations. (HT FILE)

Aviation sector awaits successful vaccination drive; crawls towards normalcy

By Neha LM Tripathi, Mumbai
PUBLISHED ON MAR 08, 2021 12:54 AM IST
Experts said the ministry of civil aviation is estimated to create 1,058 jobs this month which signals growing optimism in the industry.
Close
Sanjay Raut. (HT Photo)
Sanjay Raut. (HT Photo)

Maharashtra: Topic of emergency should be buried once and for all, says Shiv Sena

By Swapnil Rawal, Mumbai
UPDATED ON MAR 08, 2021 01:18 AM IST
The Shiv Sena on Sunday said the topic of India’s Emergency of 1975 is “outdated” and must be “buried once and for all”, as the current situation in the country is much worse
Close
A total of <span class='webrupee'>₹</span>19.9 lakh was collected as fine from the passengers. (HT FILE)
A total of 19.9 lakh was collected as fine from the passengers. (HT FILE)

Mumbai: Over 11,000 railway passengers fined for not wearing mask

By Aroosa Ahmed, Mumbai
PUBLISHED ON MAR 08, 2021 12:51 AM IST
On Western Railway, 5,530 passengers were booked till March 6. On Central Railway, 6,177 passengers were fined. A total of 19.9 lakh was collected as fine from the passengers.
Close
Raj Thackeray. (HT PHOTO)
Raj Thackeray. (HT PHOTO)

U-turn by Maharashtra Navnirman Sena: Raj says revive Nanar to get jobs for locals

PUBLISHED ON MAR 08, 2021 12:46 AM IST
In a complete U-turn, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray, has demanded revival of the refinery petrochemical project at Nanar in Ratnagiri, which was scrapped by the previous Fadnavis government in 2019 after all political parties other than the Bharatiya Janata Party opposed it
Close
Employees sanitise a classroom. (HT FILE)
Employees sanitise a classroom. (HT FILE)

Maharashtra: Professional course institutes grapple with time crunch to finish syllabus

By Shreya Bhandary, Mumbai
PUBLISHED ON MAR 08, 2021 12:45 AM IST
Delay in admissions to professional courses this year has led to serious trouble not only for students, but also colleges. Colleges have been grappling with separate class and exam schedules for their first-year batches as compared to rest of the batches.
Close
A health worker wearing PPE kit sanitises a luggage of a passenger at Dadar station in Mumbai. (Bhushan Koyande/ HT Photo)
A health worker wearing PPE kit sanitises a luggage of a passenger at Dadar station in Mumbai. (Bhushan Koyande/ HT Photo)

Mumbai crosses 1,300 new Covid cases mark after October

By Eeshanpriya MS, Mumbai
PUBLISHED ON MAR 08, 2021 12:42 AM IST
Mumbai’s case tally stands at 333,569, of which 9,319 are active, with recovery rate of 93%; 4 deaths take toll to 11,504.
Close
For representational purposes only. (HT FILE)
For representational purposes only. (HT FILE)

Mumbai: Lab operator arrested over false Covid -19 report

By Manish K Pathak, Mumbai
PUBLISHED ON MAR 08, 2021 12:37 AM IST
Shivaji Nagar police arrested a pathology lab owner on Friday for allegedly giving a forged negative report to a 71-year-old Covid-19 patient.
Close
SHARE
Story Saved
OPEN APP