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Modi’s Balochistan barb a game-changer
NEW DELHI: When Prime Minister Narendra Modi acknowledged the gratitude of the people of Balochistan, and Gilgit, and nodded at their struggles in his Independence
NEW DELHI: When Prime Minister Narendra Modi acknowledged the gratitude of the people of Balochistan, and Gilgit, and nodded at their struggles in his Independence Day speech on Monday, he ended a long period of shadow-boxing in India-Pakistan ties.
This is a game changer, but its consequences are not clear just yet.
Modi’s reference to Gilgit is significant but can be understood. There is an Indian parliamentary resolution that all of Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of India. The real shift is Balochistan.
To understand the leap, let us go back to Sharm-el-Sheikh in 2009. After a meeting between the Indian and Pakistani PMs, a joint statement said that Pakistan has ‘some information on threats in Balochistan and other areas’.
Pakistan has repeatedly accused India of supporting insurgents in Balochistan, where it has been facing a long separatist struggle. For Pakistan, it served three ends - it was able to pass off an internal domestic issue into an externally-backed conspiracy; it lobbied with the West to keep India out of the Afghanistan equation with this accusation; and when India pointed to its role in Kashmir, it had a ready-made response on how India is intervening in its internal affairs.
Delhi has always refuted the allegations, and asked for proof, which Islamabad was unable to offer convincingly.
It was for this reason that the 2009 statement provoked a huge domestic backlash in India. The opposition, as well as sections of the ruling Congress, saw Sharmel-Sheikh as a sell-out. India was viewed as almost admitting that it has a role in Balochistan. Parliament erupted, and questions were asked why a reference to Balochistan was included in a joint statement. The government back-tracked and Manmohan Singh’s negotiating hand with Pakistan weakened.
Modi, in some sense, embraced the perception pushed by Pakistan, converted it from an accusation to a possible lever, and claimed a role for India in Balochistan. The thinking is clear - if Pakistan can use internal Indian vulnerabilities (read Kashmir), India can use internal Pakistani vulnerabilities.
However, there is a big difference so far. Pakistan has offered tangible financial, moral, political support to Kashmiri separatists. It has ‘exported terror’, alleges India. How will Delhi reciprocate in concrete terms? Whether its support to Baloch struggle will remain confined to a few utterances, or whether it will grow to more tangible forms, is to be seen.
There is an additional subtext to it. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will pass through both Balochistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Modi’s statement is meant as much for Beijing as for Islamabad. Both countries will not keep quiet.
What’s as significant as the statement is the occasion on which it was made. If it was merely a tactical manoeuvre, India could have left it to a mid-level diplomat, or an official foreign ministry statement. The fact that India’s PM has spoken of Balochistan - and from the ramparts of the Red Fort - signifies a level of political sanction and commitment that has not been seen so far on the issue. It also means that once Delhi has taken the plunge, it cannot hop out at will.
