18 months, 11 elections and the BJP’s opportunity and challenge

For a party which takes every election seriously, and plays up the advantages of a “double engine” sarkar — having the same party in power in the state and the Centre — winning state elections is is considered critical to sustaining the party’s strength

New Delhi: The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is looking at big wins in a majority of the 11 state assembly elections to be held in the next 18 months, before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls when it will seek to return to power in the Centre for the third consecutive term.

The linkage between success in state polls and Lok Sabha is not neat. The BJP won almost all seats in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in 2019 general elections despite the Congress acquired power in all these states just months earlier. (PTI)

To be sure, the linkage between success in state polls and Lok Sabha is not neat. The BJP won almost all seats in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in 2019 general elections despite the Congress acquired power in all these states just months earlier.

But for a party which takes every election seriously, and plays up the advantages of a “double engine” sarkar — having the same party in power in the state and the Centre — winning state elections is is considered critical to sustaining the party’s strength.

However, the party may have to sort out leadership issues in many of these states. In Madhya Pradesh, there is speculation over future of chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. In Karnataka, the party is facing resistance against the incumbent CM, Basvaraj Bommai. In Tripura, a section of leaders considered close to former chief minister Biplab Deb are said to be resisting emergence of Manik Saha as probable face for next elections. In Rajasthan, the party has several claimants for the chief ministerial face. Even in smaller Northeastern states, the party is riddled with infighting. In Gujarat, where Bhupendra Patel was made chief minister on September 12, 2021, the party is likely to contest in the name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Here is a snapshot of the BJP’s internal challenges across the 11 states that go to polls.

Rajasthan: The story of leadership battles

In Rajasthan, where the assembly polls will be held with Chhattisgarh and MP at the end of 2023, the BJP is unlikely to declare a chief minister face, in a bid to quell infighting in the state unit.

Rajasthan BJP is riddled with battle for supremacy between former CM Vasundhara Raje and others, specially state BJP chief Satish Poonia, who is backed by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). Poonia on Monday announced that the election will be fought under Modi’s name.

However, Raje appears to be gearing up for the leadership challenge. She has reaffirmed that it’s “our turn in 2023”, and started addressing a massive gathering in different parts of the state. At these rallies, she has been saying that the victory for the party in 2023 will be record-breaking. “In 2003, the party came in power with 120 marks (seats), then 163 in 2013, and now BJP will break all records in 2023. The number ‘3’ is lucky for us, it’s 2003, then 2013 and now it’s our turn in 2023,” she said.

Among the other front runners in BJP for the top post are Union Minister Gajendra Singh, who won from CM Gehlot’s home turf, Jodhpur and Lok Sabha speaker Om Birla, a MP from Kota. Among the leaders from weaker sections, Rajya Sabha MP Kirodi Lal Meena and union minister Arjun Ram Meghwal are also said to be in the fray.

Political analyst Manish Godha said that the BJP has little choice other than to contest the polls under Modi’s name as there is intense infighting. “The way BJP is running these days and factionalism is coming to fore, declaring a face will be difficult. However, the party may opt for a face if there is an indication in surveys that party cannot win without a CM candidate,” he said.

“Factionalism is the biggest concern for the BJP, more than what is there in the Congress. While the crisis in the Congress is between two names but in BJP there are too many grooms,” he said.

Madhya Pradesh: The story of the incumbent

BJP national president, JP Nadda, has said that a good government is working under the leadership of Shivraj Singh Chouhan, trying to rebuff the buzz that there would be change in the CM before the next assembly elections.

But many in the party say that the election is likely to be contested under the name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, instead of Chouhan, in whose name the last election was contested and the Congress won. The BJP won 109 seats and Congress 114, two short of the majority mark. But there has been a big change since then with Jyotiraditya Scindia, who commands mass support and influence in the Gwalior-Chambal region, moving to the BJP and deepening the party’s strength.

The Congress, however, is again upbeat after the impressive show in the urban local bodies polls, where the BJP could win only 10 of the 16 municipal bodies as against all 16 it won last time. The Congress won five and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) one.

Party leaders also said there could be change in leadership to beat the huge “anti-incumbency” against Chouhan, who has been chief minister for close to 15 years now. They also said the BJP will contest the 2023 assembly elections with the same success mantra that they followed in UP and i.e, promoting the central scheme and concept of double engine government.

“From chief minister to MLAs, every BJP leader has started giving credit to PM Narendra Modi and the central government’s populist scheme for the development of the state. Even in local bodies elections, the leaders held campaigns focusing on schemes for subsidised houses, toilets, providing tap drinking water and and Antodaya free ration. To deal with anti-incumbency the party will use development schemes of the central government. The BJP may not be able to totally sideline Shivraj,” said Girija Shankar, a political expert from MP.

Chhattisgarh: The uncertainty over leadership

In Chhattisgarh, the BJP is yet to declare a probable chief minister face for December 2018 assembly polls, even though former Chief Minister Raman Singh is still considered as the tallest leader of the state.

Party leaders aware of the developments believe that the Singh is most trusted in Delhi among all state leaders. Singh was CM for 15 years before Bhupesh Baghel of Congress replaced him in 2018.

“This is clear that the party will not project Singh as CM in upcoming elections but he will play an important role,” said a BJP leader adding that the party leadership had made it clear around six months back that a single face will not be projected ahead of elections.

Party leaders say there are two major factions in the Chhattisgarh’s BJP unit, one is led by Singh, and the other by Brijmohan Agarwal. “The important office-bearers, including leader of opposition in state assembly and state party president, are with Raman Singh. There is one other faction of tribal leaders within BJP which is led by senior leader Ramvichar Netam but he is not very active and possibly waiting for a decision in favour of them,” said another BJP leader.

Harish Dubey, Raipur based political commentator said that though Singh is the tallest leader in BJP in Chhattisgarh, the party needs to focus on the second line. “The strongest group within the party is led by Raman Singh. The tribal group within the BJP is divided between Ramvichar Netam and Union minister Renuka Singh who come from the northern parts of Chhattisgarh. Senior leader Saroj Pandey and Brijmohan Agarwal have their own groups within the party. As of now, Chhattisgarh BJP is in a bad shape,” Dubey said.

Karnataka: The shadow of the past lurks

Infighting has been at its peak since Basavaraj Bommai replaced BS Yediyurappa as chief minister of Karnataka last July, both because of personality clashes and since he inherited the challenges of the previous regime.

While the BJP’s central leadership has stated that the party will face the elections with Bommai leading the charge, it is no guarantee that the incumbent will continue his tenure in the top office, people aware of the developments said.

Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that no ruling party has come back to power in Karnataka since 1985, indicating the possibility of more volatility and a fractured verdict once again. A large factor for this is that the central leadership still believes that Bommai is yet to emerge from the shadow of Yediyurappa.

Legislators loyal to Yediyurappa and defectors who helped him engineer the collapse of the HD Kumaraswamy-led coalition government, continue to occupy almost all seats in the council of ministers. The party will also have to rely on the 79-year-old to get the backing of the dominant Lingayat community which Bommai does not command.

The BJP is also experimenting with Hindutva beyond Karnataka’s coastal districts with Bommai at the helm. This has added further volatility as the southern state’s politics is deeply entrenched in caste identities, which continue to be the primary platform for most legislators, including from within the BJP.

“At one level, the union home minister (Amit Shah) has said that he (Bommai) will be our leader going into the elections. But does it imply that he is the leader even after they (BJP) win the elections? There is no clear statement on this from the BJP and nor do I expect one as it shows how the BJP has looked into these issues. They have always had an element of surprise when it comes to these matters. Be it the decision they took in Assam, Maharashtra or anywhere else. We would be stealing that element of surprise from the BJP if we were to say that Bommai’s future would be secure if the party were to win. Nobody in the BJP can afford to say that,” Sandeep Shastri, political analyst and National Coordinator, Lokniti Network, said.

Telangana: The party steps up its offensive

With just a year left for the assembly elections in Telangana, the BJP has revived its strategy of poaching influential leaders from the Congress and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), especially in the districts where it is relatively weak, and is still undecided who will be face of the party in elections.

Last Sunday, senior Congress MLA Komatireddy Rajagopal Reddy said only the BJP has the capacity to defeat the TRS in the next elections in the state. The Congress MLA admitted meeting Union home minister, Amit Shah, sometime ago and discussing the political situation in the state. “My whole objective is to defeat TRS led by chief minister K Chandrasekhar Rao. And I will sail with that party which has the capacity to defeat the TRS,” he said, adding that his defection to the BJP would be a historic necessity.

“I am confident that Reddy will join the BJP soon. In fact, many leaders, including MLAs and MPs from the TRS as well, are interested in joining the BJP,” former minister and BJP lawmaker Eatala Rajender, who quit the TRS and joined the BJP in June 2021 and got re-elected to the state assembly from Huzurabad assembly constituency on BJP ticket. He heads a seven-member committee to look into the poaching of potential leaders from other parties to strengthen the BJP in different parts of the state.

On July 4, the BJP managed to attract former TRS MP from Chevella parliamentary constituency and prominent industrialist Konda Vishweshwar Reddy, who joined the party in the presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the public rally in Hyderabad held after the BJP national executive committee meeting. The BJP is focussing on attracting top leaders from other parties in the districts of Adilabad, Nalgonda and Khammam, where the party is relatively weak. “In the coming days, there is going to be a huge influx of leaders from other parties into the BJP, which has all the potential to come to power in Telangana in the next assembly elections,” Rajender said.

BJP state president Bandi Sanjay would be undertaking his third phase of padayatra in August, in which several leaders from other parties are likely to join. “Several national leaders, including Amit Shah, are expected to attend the public rallies as part of Sanjay’s 24-day padayatra. During this period, Reddy and many other Congress and TRS leaders would join the party,” the leader quoted above said.

For the BJP, Sanjay is a prominent face in Telangana even though it has battery of leaders such as G Krishna Reddy, union tourism minister, who are said to be popular in the state. “Our aim is to win the next year’s assembly polls as BJP has emerged as the only viable alternate to TRS,” said a state BJP leader.

Gujarat: Securing the home base

The BJP is confident of its victory in the state as it sees the Congress in a decimated state and the AAP still struggling to find its political space.

The party has in fact become more ambitious, and is looking to win close to 150 of the 182 seats with the support of influential Patidar voters. The community had traditionally backed the party and then moved towards the Congress in last assembly elections, but is likely to return to the party fold. “Almost all Patidar leaders are with the BJP now. There is not even a single prominent Patel leader with the Congress,” said a senior BJP leader. Patidar leader Hardik Patel who was one of the star campaigners for Congress in 2017, quit the party and joined BJP, in May this year.

With the Patidars believed to be firmly with the BJP, the party has decided to conduct an outreach programme with tribals and other backward sections, segments of which in the past have voted for the Congress. There are 27 seats reserved for tribals, of which the BJP won only 9 in 2017 elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi in recent past had held at least two events aimed at wooing the tribals in north Gujarat. “The state government has also launched several programmes for welfare of the tribals,” said BJP leader quoted above.

With the AAP in fray for the 2022 elections, BJP hopes that the new entrant will cut Congress votes that will ultimately raise BJP’s prospects in the elections.

However, the party is clear that the election in the state will be contested under the name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who will also be face of the campaign. Party leaders, however, added chief minister Bhupendra Patel, who replaced Vijay Rupani in September 2021, will remain the key person for the campaign. “We will contest the polls under leadership of the PM,” said state BJP president C R Paatil, who is implementing election strategy on ground, at a recent event. The party has prepared a campaign around the PM for the Gujarat state elections. The Congress, on the other hand, is still working on its campaign strategy, which leaders say, will be finalised by middle of August.

Himachal Pradesh: Backing CM Thakur

In Himachal Pradesh, where the polls would happen this October, the BJP has decided to go with incumbent chief minister Jairam Thakur, even though a section of the party is projecting Rajya Sabha member Indu Goswami as an alternative.

The BJP’s loss in three assemblies and one Lok Sabha seat in by-polls in Himachal Pradesh last year had cast a shadow on the leadership of Thakur. However, the party’s national president JP Nadda during his visit to the state in April this year had ruled out any change of guard and said Thakur would complete his term and the next elections will be fought under his leadership.

The rise of Indu Goswami, who is from politically important Kangra district, within the party with her appointment as national general secretary of BJP Mahila Morcha, has led to speculation that she would get important position for elections in the state.

Mizoram: The plans for expansion

With only a year left for the assembly polls to take place in Mizoram, the BJP is hoping to increase its tally in the state assembly from one to 7 to 10 in the the 40-member state assembly.

The BJP opened its account in the Christian-dominated state winning a seat in the last assembly polls held in November 2018. BD Chakma, who joined the BJP after his resignation as Congress minister in 2017, was elected from Tuichawng assembly constituency in 2018, to become the first even BJP legislator in the state. Chakma was, in July, convicted in a graft case.

A senior BJP leader said that the party has a chance of winning at least 7 to 10 seats in the upcoming assembly polls, especially in three ethnic dominated autonomous district councils (ADCs) in the southern part of the state and Brus concentrated Mizoram’s western belt.

Lalthakima, an associate professor, who teaches political science in Pachhunga University College (PUC) said the BJP can at most win three seats, especially those where Mizos are not in majority. “The party (BJP) as before, will not have influence on mainstream Mizos. The party has better prospects in the ethnic minority areas especially among the Chakmas and Brus as these minorities have no concern for state politics but usually turn to the party that rules at the Centre,” he said.

Tripura: Where a change of guard complicates the landscape

Ahead of Tripura Assembly polls scheduled to be held in 2023, all is not well in the state BJP unit, especially due to murmurs of discontent from leaders considered close to former chief minister Biplab Kumar Deb.

On May 15, BJP minister Ramprasad Paul shouted and hurled chairs at the party’s senior leaders in the BJP office hours before the party’s legislative meeting to elect Manik Saha as party leader and chief minister. He later termed his action as an outburst of emotion. On July 23, BJP legislator Arun Chandra Bhowmik demanded that education minister Ratan Lal Nath be dropped from the cabinet alleging inefficiencies in his department.

Saha has, however, said that all was fine with the party with the central party leadership showing fully faith in him. In the last by-poll before assembly election early next year, the party won three of the four seats on June 23, giving a boost to the BJP.

The BJP had come to power winning 36 seats in 2018 for the first time in alliance with Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) ending the Left’s uninterrupted rule for two decades. The IPFT got eight seats leaving and 16 went to the Communist Party of India -Marxist (CPI-M) in the 60-seated Assembly.

BJP spokesperson Nabendu Bhattacharya said it was too early to decide who would be face of the party in elections. “There is no discussion on the issue so far,” he said. “The prospect of BJP is very good in the coming polls till now. If there is any secret understanding between the opposition parties in the coming days, the result might be different,” said senior political analyst Swapan Bhattacharjee.

Meghlaya: Situation is not unfavourable

The Meghalaya unit of the BJP has, over the last four years, been making its presence felt in the state and believes it will expand its strength when the state goes to the polls in 2023.

With two legislators AL Hek and Sanbor Shullai at present, the party has locked in 35 candidates to contest the 2023 polls. The candidates have been divided into three categories depending on prospects, with 15 candidates in category A, and 10 candidates each in category B and C.

State president Earnest Mawrie Mawrie claimed that there are Two MLAs from other parties who are in talks now to contest the election from the BJP, “but due to the anti-defection of the Tenth Schedule, they cannot join the party now.” He hinted that perhaps after July there will be more legislators who will be joining the party. “We are confident of doing very well this time, we have been working hard and our karyakartas are confident this time,” Hek told HT over phone adding, “We succeeded in having our (BJP) government in the state and we are confident of repeating it next year. Who knows, if all goes well we might even lead the government.”

The party’s prospects, however, has dampened a bit with the latest controversy over Bernard Marak accused of running a prostitution racket from his resort in Tura. Though the BJP has strongly rubbished the allegations and categorically termed it a case of political harassment, party insiders say it is an open secret that all is not very well within its ranks. Its two legislators do not see eye to eye and have contradicted each other over party matters.

Senior journalist and political analyst, Starfing Pdahkasiej, said the situation is not unfavourable for the BJP in Meghalaya. “The party has been working steadily to increase its vote share and in border areas especially it should do better. Even here in Shillong also it might increase its seats if it gets the right candidate in some constituencies.”

Nagaland: Working together as “one family”

In Nagaland, the BJP, which is a major ally of the Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio’s National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), with 12 MLAs, has seen some ups and down during the last four years.

The BJP and NDPP had a pre-poll seat sharing (20:40) arrangement in the 2018 state assembly elections and the two parties formed the government even though the regional Naga People’s Front (NPF) emerged as the single largest party with 26 elected members in the house of 60.

The state BJP faced internal dissidence in 2020 and 2021 with some district presidents opposing minister Temjen Imna Along holding the reins as state party chief. However, Along said on Monday that the issue was sorted and they were all working together as “one family”.

In 2021, when the NPF joined the BJP-NDPP alliance to form an opposition-less house under the nomenclature United Democratic Alliance (UDA), it was widely speculated that the BJP leadership was taken aback at the move. But with CM Rio and the then NPF’s leader TR Zeliang’s measured approach, it was understood that BJP central leaders were persuaded that this wasn’t an attempt to undercut the party.

Still, the relationship between the major allies BJP and NDPP continued to show strain even at the beginning of this year during the Manipur assembly polls when CM Rio went to Manipur to campaign for state ally NPF. The merger of 21 NPF MLAs with NDPP, despite the house being opposition-less, raised eyebrows in the political spectrum.

State BJP president Along said on Monday that the party and its leadership were committed to the alliance. When asked if BJP is comfortable with the seat-sharing arrangement with NDPP or the party is likely to contest in all the 60 constituencies in the forthcoming assembly election, he said that with the BJP being a national political party, all decisions lie in the hands of the central leadership. “Also, isn’t it too early to discuss about next year’s election?”

Political analysts and observers say the mantra “Modi hain to mumkin hai” is unlikely to work out in the state if BJP goes alone in the poll.

“BJP has to continue its alliance with NDPP or forge alliance with NPF who despite being reduce to 4 MLAs following recent defection of 21 of its MLAs still enjoys grass rootlevel support,” says Kohima-based Kenei Angami, a political observer. He added that if one has to go with the present claim and counter-claim politicking of BJP-NDPP alliance, it remains to be seen whether the “marriage” will continue since there is bound to be serious issues on getting party tickets with NDPP already overloaded with MLAs and loyal party aspirants. He said the situation might work to BJP and NPF’s advantage as it would give rise to rebel candidates who may jump the NDPP ship to join other parties.

Elections may also be held in Jammu and Kashmir in the next year. But given the lack of clarity over timeline, and the uncertainty over the nature of political alliances that will take shape before the election, it is premature to examine the BJP’s strategy. What is clear that in the first elections after the region was carved out as a union territory, and after its special constitutional status was revoked, the BJP will deploy all its political strength to win a majority of the seats in Jammu and make its presence felt in the Valley. The stakes in the Union territory of J&K are higher than in any other state, for it is not just the BJP’s strength that is on test but the legitimacy of the new constitutional arrangement and that of the Indian State.

(Inputs by Alice Yhoshu in Kohima, Henry L. Khojol in Aizwal, David Laitphlang in Shillong, Ritesh Mishra in Raipur, Gaurav Bisht in Shimla, Sachin Saini in Jaipur, Shruti Tomar in Bhopal, Priyanka Deb Burman in Agartala, Maulik Pathak in Gandhinagar, Shruti Tomar in Bhopal and Sharan Poovanna in Bengaluru)