A time to wait and watch as political alignments shift
Will Nitish Kumar be able to unite the divided Opposition and defeat the BJP?
Take a look at three significant events from the previous week. These political initiatives will be crucial in the general elections scheduled for 2024.
Earlier this week, Bihar chief minister (CM) Nitish Kumar met with all Opposition leaders for several hours in New Delhi. He met Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and had dinner with Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal. Although Kejriwal has declared himself a jihadi in the fight against corruption, Nitish Kumar has also met with convicted leader Om Prakash Chautala. He met with various Leftist factions and did not forget to meet Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav, who is recovering at Medanta Hospital.
His son Akhilesh was also present during this meeting. On the final day of his visit, he had a lengthy conversation with senior-most Opposition leader Sharad Pawar. Nitish had previously met with Telangana CM K Chandrashekar Rao in Patna. He is scheduled to meet with more non-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-ruled states’ CMs and Opposition leaders in the coming days.
Will Nitish Kumar be able to unite the divided Opposition and defeat the BJP?
Nitish and his allies think that because the BJP won 200 of the 250 seats in the north and west India, even if it loses 40 of them, the picture may change. They know that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won all of the seats in 10 states and Union Territories in 2019. This vast area is represented by 83 Members of Parliament (MPs). Furthermore, the saffron party had won 184 Lok Sabha seats from a total of 264 in Uttar Pradesh (UP), Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Assam, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Bihar.
The major NDA constituents in Punjab, Maharashtra and Bihar have chosen to break away. On this basis, they believe that the BJP will struggle to repeat the miracle on its own or with the help of some smaller parties.
This argument appears appealing, but it contains numerous pitfalls.
Consider West Bengal. In the 2019 general election, the BJP won 18 of the state’s 42 seats. Mamata Banerjee, on the other hand, secured an unprecedented victory in the recent assembly elections. It is worth noting that Congress did not get any seats in the 2022 assembly elections, while the Left parties got just one. Even after being in tune with Nitish Kumar, Didi is adamant about keeping the Congress and the Left parties out of any alliance for the next Lok Sabha elections. Telangana’s CM KCR has expressed similar sentiments. Nitish will be in West Bengal in the coming days. Will the Bihar CM be able to persuade Mamata and KCR, both Third Front supporters, to form a “Main Front”? Kejriwal, on the other hand, is opposed to such “manipulation” politics. Apart from these three, two other leaders have the potential to stymie Opposition unity — Akhilesh Yadav and Bahujan Samaj Party leader Mayawati. It is impossible to win the battle for UP unless these two are brought together.
Let us now look at two other incidents.
On Wednesday, Rahul Gandhi embarked on the Bharat Jodo Yatra (Unite India march) from Kanyakumari. During this, he will travel up to Kashmir. His motive is clear. In south India, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by Congress is in a relatively strong position.
The Congress won 27 out of 129 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, while the BJP won 29 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress believes that if the atmosphere of Opposition unity warms up, the BJP will be unable to win as many seats there as it did previously.
Kejriwal is flexing his muscles at the same time. On Wednesday, he launched the “Make India No. 1” campaign from his hometown, Hisar. During this, he will also meet with voters across the country. He fought against Modi in 2014 but lost. It remains to be seen how successful his efforts will be going forward.
Let’s come back to the BJP. There are no major allies left with it, but the BJP’s top leadership doesn’t seem to mind. The reason? Modi, home minister Amit Shah, and BJP president JP Nadda continue to nurture the BJP’s desire for victory at any cost. It is not without reason that on the same day Nitish Kumar met Kejriwal and Chautala, Shah and Nadda met with the party’s ministers and office-bearers. The agenda of the meeting was to focus on the 139 seats where the BJP finished second last time.
The BJP is also looking into forming an alliance with Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh. The saffron party is adept at playing its cards such as to catch everyone off guard. Maharashtra is the most recent example of this. Who knows what its next move is?
One thing is certain: The board for 2024 has been set out, but preliminary bets do not lead to any conclusion. Both teams have proficient players. It is preferable to wait for the final outcome.
Shashi Shekhar is the editor-in-chief, Hindustan
The views expressed are personal
