For Macron, the real challenge starts now
While Macron’s first task will be to win the June parliamentary polls, he will also have to co-opt disgruntled voters; neutralise Le Pen’s flock, and unite France behind his political, economic, and social agenda
As widely expected, French President Emmanuel Macron has emerged the winner in the decisive second round of the presidential elections held on April 24 by beating far-Right candidate Marine Le Pen by a margin of around 16 percentage points. This may be less than the 30 percentage points he beat her by in 2017, but it is quite convincing given that opinion polls predicted a closer race. In so doing, Macron has achieved the distinction of being re-elected for a second term, something no French president has managed to do since 2002. Macron’s win will be greeted with a collective sigh of relief in most world capitals. In the European Union headquarters in Brussels, the sigh will be palpable.
For the far-Right leader Marine Le Pen, this was arguably her best chance of making it to the top job. However, despite considerable softening of her image and the extremist leader Eric Zemmour making her sound almost moderate, Le Pen could not appeal to the broader French electorate. The result may have disappointed Le Pen, but she has already vowed to lead her party in the legislative elections in June. Either way, the far-Right is here to stay in France and will make its presence felt even more in the future.
For Macron, the real challenge of governing France begins now.
First, the abstention rate was at an all-time high of 28%. Most of those who abstained did so because they could not choose between what they considered the “cholera” and the “plague.” Macron, therefore, has the difficult task of co-opting these voters into his scheme of things.
Second, Le Pen won something close to 42% of the vote in the second round. This is too significant a percentage of the electorate to ignore. Le Pen’s flock will have to be politically neutralised by Macron.
Third, and perhaps most important, the voting pattern in France in these two rounds of the presidential election reveals a fractured polity and a divided nation. It falls on Macron to do everything in his power to unite the country behind his political, economic, and social agenda. Or else, the French, with their famous predilection for taking to the streets, can potentially make Macron’s task of governing France very difficult.
The immediate task before Macron is to win a majority for his party in the parliamentary elections scheduled to take place on June 12 and 19 to elect 577 members of the French National Assembly. The French parliament is bicameral, with a national assembly (lower house) and a senate (upper house). While it is true that the French president has more powers than the leader of any other European country, it is nevertheless crucial for him to have a working majority in the national assembly to implement his agenda.
After all, the national assembly performs the dual functions of legislation and control over the executive. In the parliamentary elections held in June 2017, Macron’s party plus his ally won a whopping 60% of the vote, ensuring 350 seats in the lower house of 577. This allowed Macron to govern without any problem from the Opposition. This time, the biggest imponderable is whether the French electorate will hand Macron this kind of a majority again in the parliamentary elections.
Parties such as Jean-Luc Melanchon’s France Unbowed may do exceptionally well in the parliamentary elections, complicating Macron’s legislative agenda. The big question is also how well the far-Right parties of Le Pen and Zemmour fare in the June elections. Traditionally, they have fared badly in parliamentary elections. Could it be different this time around? If Macron’s party fails to win a working majority, then he will be forced into a “cohabitation” with a prime minister belonging to a different political party, making governance that much more difficult.
The economic and social challenges facing France are formidable. Marine Le Pen could never have garnered over 40% of the vote, if she had not focussed on the cost of living. Macron will need to tackle this issue head-on.
France has one of the most significant numbers of Muslims within its territory, and radical Islamism has always been a problem. He will have to deal with this problem with sensitivity and deftness. Immigration was certainly an issue for a significant portion of the electorate, and Macron will need to allay their concerns. The big question is what Macron does with his agenda for change, particularly the increase in retirement age and pension reform. Will he seek a referendum on the subject?
In foreign policy, Macron will ensure continuity with a steady hand. France and Germany will continue to provide the ballast for the “EU Project” and Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz will continue to lead the EU in areas such as policy towards Russia and China. India has every reason to be delighted at Macron’s re-election. When I was ambassador to France in June 2017, the first overseas leader to visit Macron in Paris after his election was the Indian Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi. I will not be surprised if PM Modi visits France soon to congratulate Macron and discuss the future of the Franco-Indian strategic partnership. Issues such as defence, the climate crisis, cyber security, connectivity, and the Indian Ocean region will figure high on the agenda for cooperation between the two countries.
Mohan Kumar is India’s former ambassador to FranceThe views are personal.