Keeping up with UP | What the Azamgarh and Rampur bypolls reveal about the BJP

The BJP yet again makes its place by displacing the main Opposition party, the SP, and now occupies the thrones in the two Muslim-dominated regions. Here's how they did it:

Lucknow: There are several reasons why the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) took the bypolls to Azamgarh and Rampur Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh (UP) seriously.

As for the BJP, yet another win adds to their victory record beginning in 2014. (File Photo)

First, the BJP contests every election — from the village panchayat to the country’s top constitutional position of President — as a veritable ground for its political puissance and power.

Second, both Rampur in West and Azamgarh in East UP are Muslim-dominated constituencies, where it could test its controversial 80:20 formula in the by-elections. It was during the 2022 assembly polls that chief minister (CM) Yogi Adityanath triggered a controversy by describing it as an “80% vs 20% election”, stating that 80% of the progressive supporters would back the BJP, while 20%, who opposed the BJP in the past, would oppose them in the future too.

Immediately, 80-20 was seen from the prism of communal politics in the state — 80% Hindus and 20% Muslims. He later denied the communal parallel drawn by his detractors, stating he had not said it in the context of religion or caste. But, by then, the message had reverberated across UP, loud and clear.

Thus, when the BJP won both the Azamgarh and Rampur Lok Sabha bypolls, the tweet by party national general secretary BL Santhosh smartly worded the victory as: “History being made. The death knell to communal, divisive, minority appeasement politics. The mandate for Politics of Vikas practised by PM Narendra Modi and CM Yogi Adityanath.” Interestingly, ending the divisive politics was the plank of Samajwadi Party (SP) leader Mohd Azam Khan, who largely shouldered the responsibility of campaigning in both constituencies.

That the BJP was determined to win the two seats was also reflected in the chief minister's comment, “It's a historic win reflecting the confidence of the people in the welfare policies of the double-engine government.”

Finally, the BJP has tested the 80-20 formula.

Both Azamgarh and Rampur are Muslim-dominated constituencies, which the BJP has been struggling to snatch from the Opposition parties.

The loss of Azamgarh is a major jolt to the SP, whose founder-president Mulayam Singh Yadav and national president Akhilesh Yadav won despite the Modi wave in 2014 and 2019. This time, Akhilesh’s cousin and former Badaun Member of Parliament (MP) Dharmendra Yadav was in the fray in a bid to retain the family seat. He lost the seat by a mere margin of 8,679 votes.

The loss has many factors. But mainly the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which fielded a local Muslim candidate supposedly to divide the minority votes and oblige the BJP. Mayawati succeeded in her mission as her party candidate Shah Alam Guddu Jamal took away a major slice of over 2.66 lakh votes against 3.12 lakh votes in favour of the winning BJP nominee Dinesh Lal Yadav Nirahua, Bhojpuri actor and singer, and 3.04 lakh votes to SP candidate Dharmendra Yadav.

Though the BSP candidate strongly refuted the charge that he was a dummy candidate to bail out the BJP in a prestige battle, the fact is that Mayawati, in the past, has not only avoided contesting by-polls, but had also decided not to fight for the Rampur seat. Jamali, the BSP candidate, divided the Muslim vote as he was a local candidate, accessible to the people, whereas Dharmendra Yadav had flown there from his home in the West.

In Rampur, it is a personal setback for the party’s co-founder-leader and Muslim face Mohd Azam Khan, who had last come out of jail on May 20 after spending about 27 months, in about 100 FIRs lodged against him by Yogi Adityanath government, but failed to elicit sympathy votes. Surprisingly, he was wooed by all the Opposition parties — the Congress, BSP, Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (PSP) of Shivpal Singh Yadav — after the end of his incarceration.

Why the BJP won

It was a matter of prestige for the BJP to win both seats. Led by Yogi, the party left no stone unturned in wresting the seats, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav did not address even one public rally, though he did micromanage from Lucknow.

The SP complained of the police playing a foul game, terrorising voters in their strong areas and dispatched a missive to the Election Commission, but then, as it is said in love and war, “Jo Jeeta Wohi Sikander.”

And both the victories are special. Here is why.

Azamgarh, also known as a land of socialists, has been an Opposition citadel with the SP winning the Lok Sabha seat five times, the BSP thrice, and the Janata Dal once since 1989. The BJP had won it only once in 2009 when local strongman and former MP Ramakant Yadav, who fought elections on both SP and BSP tickets, shifted to the BJP. The Congress won it once in 1984.

Barring 1984, when a Rajput had won the seat on a Congress ticket, it was either a Muslim or a Yadav who has won all the elections in Azamgarh. The 1984 Lok Sabha elections were held soon after the assassination of the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. Of the 18 lakh voters in Azamgarh, Muslims and Yadavs alone account for 3.5 lakh each, while Dalits are about 4 lakhs. Thus, the M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) and D-M (Dalit-Muslim) combinations have generally won the polls as the three communities are perceived to go en bloc.

The Rampur story is different. Unlike Azamgarh where M-Y or M-D combine helped the Opposition parties, Rampur is primarily dominated by Muslims who account for almost 45-50% of the electorate. The BJP had fielded Ghanshyam Singh Lodhi, from the second dominant caste. Lodhi had contested the 2009 elections on a BSP ticket and had suffered defeat. Later, he joined the SP and became the right hand of Azam Khan. However, ahead of the 2022 polls, Lodhi joined the BJP. While he believes his support base in all castes and communities paid him dividends in the election, the SP candidate Mohammad Asim Raza, a close aide of Azam Khan, claims he lost the seat because of a “misuse of official machinery”.

Because of the famous Nawab family of Rampur, the Congress continued to hold its influence even after the party started disappearing from the state in 1989. It alternately won the seat with the BJP in four elections — 1991 the BJP, 1996 the Congress, 1998 the BJP, and 1999 again, the Congress. Thereafter, the SP made inroads and won two consecutive elections in 2004 and 2009, even though the BJP had fielded Bollywood actress Jaya Prada. Again, the SP lost the seat to the BJP in 2014 only to win it back in 2019. Mohd Azam Khan was elected to the Lok Sabha three years ago, but he decided to retain the Rampur assembly seat that he won in the 2022 assembly elections. Azam campaigned extensively not only in Rampur, but also in Azamgarh.

Thus, a question will also be raised on Azam's influence over Muslim votes as his identity is crucial and is what keeps him in demand.

The main Opposition party, the SP, gets a major setback, but then, as they say, the by-polls generally go in favour of the ruling party.

As for the BJP, yet another win adds to their victory record beginning in 2014.

From her perch in Lucknow, HT’s resident editor Sunita Aron highlights important issues related to Uttar Pradesh

The views expressed are personal