E-Paper
Pakistan could emerge as world’s 5th largest nuclear weapons state: Report
Pakistan currently has 140 to 150 nuclear warheads and the stockpile is expected to increase to 220 to 250 by 2025 if the current trend continues
Pakistan’s stockpile of atomic warheads could increase to 220 to 250 by 2025, making it the world’s fifth-largest nuclear weapon state, according to a new report from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).
Though FAS’s latest report focused solely on Pakistan, an earlier report on global nuclear warhead inventories published in June had estimated that Pakistan currently has 150 atomic warheads, compared to 140 for India. It had also said in its earlier report that Pakistan, North Korea, China and India were among the countries that are increasing their warhead inventories.
The report “Pakistan nuclear forces 2018” stated that Pakistan’s current estimated stockpile of atomic warheads had already exceeded the US Defense Intelligence Agency’s projection in 1999 that the country would have 60 to 80 warheads by 2020.
“We estimate that (Pakistan’s) stockpile could more realistically grow to 220 to 250 warheads by 2025, if the current trend continues. If that happens, it would make Pakistan the world’s fifth-largest nuclear weapon state,” said the report authored by Hans M Kristensen, director of FAS’ Nuclear Information Project, Robert Norris and Julia Diamond.
The report added, “Over the past decade, the US assessment of nuclear weapons security in Pakistan appears to have changed considerably from confidence to concern, particularly as a result of the introduction of tactical weapons.”
Pakistan, the report said, is “modifying its nuclear posture with new short-range nuclear-capable weapon systems to counter military threats below the strategic level”. The nuclear weapons can be delivered by combat aircraft such as F-16s, land-based ballistic missiles, ground, air and sea-launched cruise missiles
US officials have said Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons, which are designed for use in the battlefield, are more susceptible to terrorist theft and increase the risk of a nuclear exchange.
“With several delivery systems in development, four plutonium production reactors, and its uranium enrichment facilities expanding…Pakistan has a stockpile that will likely increase further over the next 10 years,” the report said.
“Analysis of a large number of commercial satellite images of Pakistani army garrisons and air force bases shows what appear to be mobile launchers and underground facilities that might be related to nuclear forces,” it added.
The authors estimated Pakistan is currently producing sufficient fissile material to build 14 to 27 new warheads a year, though the actual warhead increase is around 10 a year. In 2016, the International Panel on Fissile Materials estimated Pakistan had 3,400 kg of weapon-grade highly enriched uranium and 280 kg of weapon-grade plutonium, enough to make 236 to 283 warheads.
