Taliban-Haqqani-Al Qaeda: What experts think is happening in Afghanistan

According to experts, the Kabul airport blast was an attempt by ISIS-K's stature in the jihadist world at a time when their apparent rival the Taliban is officially pledging for peace.

The blasts near Kabul airport on Thursday which the Taliban have officially condemned is a major jolt to both the United States and the Taliban, experts have said. The attack by the ISIS-Khorasan province puts the Taliban under pressure to secure Kabul, analysts interviewed by news agency AFP said. At the same time, the attack puts the Taliban-Haqqani-Al Qaeda triumvirate under the scanner, analysts told New York Times. ISIS-K’s links with the Taliban through Haqqani has also been suggested by some experts.

People walk a street near the Baron Hotel around Abbey Gate of Kabul's airport a day after the blasts. (via REUTERS)

Afghanistan's former vice president Amrullah Saleh alleged that the IS-K have their roots in Talibs and Haqqani network, particularly the ones operating in Kabul; though ISIS-K and the Taliban are rivals.

"Last night's attacks have shown once again that no one group can claim monopoly over violence in Afghanistan or claim to secure it," said Abdul Basit, a researcher of international studies told AFP.

The Taliban have claimed to be aware of such imminent threats but the back-to-back blasts at crowded airport areas proved that their security failed, in case they intended to provide security to Afghan people, as promised earlier. "Taliban checkpoints that dot around the city failed to catch the perpetrators of the Kabul airport attack. But that's based on the assumption the Taliban intended to provide security in the first place to protect lives," Nishank Motwani, an Afghan analyst told AFP.

A New York Times analysis says that a strike of this magnitude would bolster ISIS-K’s stature in the jihadist world as this branch of the Islamic State is not a major force, neither in Afghanistan, not in the world. The group’s ranks have dropped to about 1,500 to 2,000 fighters, about half from its peak levels in 2016, the NYT report said.

“The Taliban, Haqqani network, and Al Qaeda function as a triumvirate, and one that is very much part of the same militant network, they work together hand-in-glove,” Colin P. Clarke, a counterterrorism analyst told NYT adding that they have actually grown closer over the past decade. And the closeness will only increase after the US withdrawal, the analyst said.

An Afghanistan specialist at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, Seth G Jones told NYT that ISIS-K is not a first-tier ISIS affiliate but with the Afghan commandoes and the American military gone, they might get a breathing room.

ISIS leader Shahab al-Muhajir is reported to have been a former mid-level Haqqani commander before defecting. Many ISIS commanders and fighters were once part of Al Qaeda or an Al Qaeda franchise and hence experts are not ruling out the IS-Haqqani-Taliban link.

(With inputs from AFP and New York Times)