Will US-Iran conflict ease out or explode further? Decoding what comes next

The conversation on Point Blank between HT’s Shishir Gupta and HT’s Aayesha Varma sees discussions surrounding the Iran-US warn, widening in West Asia.

Has a new era begun in Iran? With a new Supreme Leader, the son of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, taking the reins of the Islamic Regime, will the nation see change or will the same hardline policies be pushed onto the people of Iran?

The United States and Israel have escalated bombing runs, targeting Tehran’s infrastructure, oil depots and other strategic sites in an attempt to degrade Iran’s war-fighting ability. (AFP)

The Middle East is hurtling through a moment of profound uncertainty - with energy markets roiled, Gulf monarchies on edge, and India walking a tightrope shaped by geography and national interest.

Iran’s New Supreme Leader

The conversation on Point Blank between HT’s Shishir Gupta and HT’s Aayesha Varma opens with a pivotal development in Tehran: the elevation of Mojtaba Khamenei, son of assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader of Iran. His rise, backed by the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), signals continuity rather than change — a dynastic and even harder-line consolidation of power, not a reformist opening, as hoped for by thousands on the ground in Iran… and even more across the globe.

According to Shishir Gupta, this installation is not an isolated event but the political backdrop to an already volatile war. With Mojtaba closely aligned to the IRGC, the message from Tehran is clear: the regime intends to fight on, not compromise under pressure.

Gupta describes a “larger picture of chaos” stretching beyond the Middle East into the global economy. Oil prices have spiked to around 117 dollars a barrel, with Qatari projections hinting at an eye-watering rise to 150 dollars.

A War Without An End?

On the battlefield, Gupta frames the confrontation as a grinding, attritional fight with no easy off-ramp. The United States and Israel have escalated bombing runs, targeting Tehran’s infrastructure, oil depots and other strategic sites in an attempt to degrade Iran’s war-fighting ability. Remember, the war was waged just 48 hours after Washington and Tehran held their third round of nuclear talks, begging the question - were the talks just for optics and had the wheels for war already been set in motion?

Yet Iran continues to launch missiles and drones at Gulf countries it sees as complicit with Washington, effectively punishing the Sunni Arab world for siding with the United States of America. Through proxies such as Hezbollah, the Houthis and Kataib Hezbollah, Tehran is widening the conflict footprint and ensuring that the costs are felt well beyond its borders.

The Ultimate Ultimatum: Surrender or Die

Gupta likens the showdown to a heavyweight boxing match where both fighters refuse to go down. On one side is President Donald Trump, determined to force Iran into either surrender or destruction; on the other is Mojtaba Khamenei and the IRGC, equally adamant that they will not capitulate.

In such a scenario, each side can still declare its own version of “victory.” Iran can claim success simply by ensuring the regime survives; the US can claim success by arguing it has “pulverized” Iran’s military and economic infrastructure. The real question, Gupta stresses, is not battlefield damage but whether Washington is able to achieve the holy grail of total victory: regime change in Tehran.

Lens on Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil passes, has become another key pressure point. Gupta points out that ship movements there have slowed drastically as Iran targets vessels, fires drones and disrupts maritime traffic. The IRGC had claimed they would set any vessel that passes through the Strait on fire - a threat issued just days after Trump said he would protect those very same vessels.

This, then, turns the conflict into a three-sided contest: the US–Israel coalition, Iran, and Gulf countries absorbing collateral damage even as they try to avoid open alignment in combat. While the world watches for assurances on energy and food security, the region remains locked in what Gupta calls “utter chaos,” with a decisive turn expected soon.

IRGC: Tehran’s Real Might

In the political theatre, Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, recently issued a carefully modulated apology to Gulf states for attacks, adding a pointed warning that strikes would resume if they continued supporting the US. Yet Gupta is blunt: the statement “did not carry any weight.”

Instead, the IRGC quickly cut down that softer line and signalled its intention to expand the war so that “the world is actually feeling the heat.” For Gupta, this underscores a critical reality — in today’s Iran, the IRGC is the real regime, not even Mojtaba Khamenei. As long as the IRGC remains intact, firing missiles, launching drones, and harassing shipping, the character of the war is unlikely to change.

The tipping point, he argues, will not be the fate of militias or proxies but the survival of the core regime structure anchored in the IRGC. Both Tehran and Washington can spin narratives of victory, but without the collapse of that central pillar, any talk of a decisive US–Israeli win remains premature.

For now, Iran’s continued ability to strike ships, target Gulf infrastructure, and project power suggests a regime that is “still alive and kicking,” not one on the brink of implosion.

What Is India’s Role?

Turning to India, Gupta is categorical: New Delhi neither instigated this war, nor aggravated it, nor has any realistic pathway to intervene diplomatically or militarily. Calls for India to step in, he suggests, are more about domestic “vote bank politics” than strategic logic, with some parties seeking to mobilise a Shia constituency.

Recent Shia protests in cities like Srinagar, Lucknow and Hyderabad were, he notes, largely peaceful, despite global narratives suggesting India was “burning.” India’s actual stance is far more restrained and rooted in its own security and economic compulsions, while it pushes for dialogue and diplomacy for a more peaceful Middle East.

Yet even in crisis, Gupta sees opportunities for India. One is to build and leverage closer trans-shipment hubs — such as a new port in Kerala — to create shorter, more secure supply lines for food and essentials to Gulf states. This could help safeguard regional food security while giving India a stronger logistical role in the Arabian Sea theatre.

Another opportunity lies in introspection on defence preparedness. Iran, despite decades of sanctions, continues to fire missiles and drones with precision, implying an indigenous capability in missile motors, fuel, explosives and targeting systems. Gupta argues that Indian defence establishments, including the DRDO, must study how a sanctioned state has managed to build and sustain such a robust arsenal.

The Sinking of Dena

On the controversy over the Iranian vessel Bina sinking near Sri Lanka, Gupta pushes back against criticism that India failed to protect it. The ship, he notes, was off Galle and not within India’s immediate operational vicinity; expecting New Delhi to secure it would be as unreasonable as demanding it protect a vessel in the Suez Canal.

For him, the priority is clear: India must focus on better maritime security in its own neighbourhood, support friendly Gulf countries, and protect its large diaspora in the region. Beyond that, it cannot be expected to shoulder responsibilities that China and Russia — both closer to Iran and historically more supportive of its regime — have themselves declined to take on.

Ultimately, Gupta frames India as a “prisoner of geography”: hemmed in by a hostile Pakistan to the west, a strategic rival in China to the north and east, and deep dependence on imported oil and gas from a turbulent Middle East. These constraints mean India must prioritise its own energy security, diversify suppliers, and avoid entanglement in wars it neither started nor can realistically end.

India, he concludes, will do what aligns with its best strategic interests — stand by friendly Gulf partners, secure sea lanes and food supplies, protect its diaspora, and stay out of the direct line of fire between the US, Israel and Iran.