Bookmakers are predicting a mixed bag for the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in four state assembly elections, satta (local bettors) market operators in these states said.
The bookies in Madhya Pradesh are seeing a swing in favour of the Congress edging out the ruling BJP while those in Chhattisgarh are giving clear victory to the BJP and the ones in Rajasthan say the Congress is much ahead of the rival BJP. In Telangana, the odds favour the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) with the rival Congress-led grand alliance coming close behind.
The satta markets operate on the local sentiments of the players and may not reflect the ground situation.
“In the ‘satta market’ low price indicates victory while high price indicates defeat,” said a bookie based in Rajasthan’s Sikar town.
For instance, in Chhattisgarh for every one rupee placed on bet, one will get 90 paise for BJP and Rs 1.40 for the Congress. This basically means that if there is an upset, people make money and operators lose.
In Madhya Pradesh, the bookies are predicting that the Congress has made a lot of ground in the last fortnight and may upset the ruling BJP.
{{/usCountry}}In Madhya Pradesh, the bookies are predicting that the Congress has made a lot of ground in the last fortnight and may upset the ruling BJP.
{{/usCountry}}“As per the rates, it is a close race with the Congress slightly ahead at present. The prediction is that the Congress will get 112–116 seats in the 230 assembly seats, while the BJP will get 100–102 seats,” he said.
Another bookie in Bhopal said about a month ago, the BJP was a clear winner. “We were giving 130 seats to BJP as compared to less than 100 to the Congress,” he said, without commenting on the reasons for the swing.
If someone would have placed a bet of Rs 1,000 on Congress a month ago, he may win twice that amount. But now, he will not earn much on Congress, a local bookie said.
In Rajasthan, which has major satta markets in Sikar, Phalodi and Nokha, the operators are expecting a clear win for the Congress though the BJP has made some recovery in the last two months.
“Two months ago, the punters were giving the Congress 132 to 134 seats when it was a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress. With emergence of third front and after BJP’s sustained campaign, we are predicting about 118–122 seats for the Congress,” said a Sikar based bookie.
He added that the BJP is expected to get Rs 55–57 seats as compared to 47–49 two months ago.
The bookies in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh said they accept bets for election in each assembly constituency, region and entire state. The rates vary each day depending on the speeches made by local leaders and political developments.
The betting market of Sikar had predicted a full majority for the BJP in the 2013 state assembly elections and had given 135–140 seats. Its assessment of the win was correct, but the party got 163 seats.
The betting market of Phalodi, the biggest in the country, is claiming that Congress will come back to power. “Till Wednesday, the assessment of the local punters was that Congress will get 126–130 seats and the BJP will get 55–58 seats. But the real markets will open on Friday,” said one of the bookies of Phalodi.
In Chhattisgarh, where polling ended on Tuesday, the satta market favours the BJP.
“Our prediction is that the BJP will win 42–43 seats and the Congress 36–37. The Ajit Jogi-led alliance with get seven seats,” said a Raipur-based satta market operator, who was not willing to be named.
He said that after the second phase polling, the probability of the BJP winning has improved.
According to satta operators in Telangana, bettors expect the Telangana Rashtra Samiti to return to power. “The stakes for KCR is high but the mood has slightly changed in the past fortnight with rates for the Congress-led grand alliance picking up,” said a Hyderabad-based bookie.
While polling was complete in two phases in Chhattisgarh, it is scheduled to be held in Madhya Pradesh on November 28 (along with Mizoram) and in Rajasthan and Telangana on December 7. The counting of votes for all the states will be done on December 11.
(With inputs from HT correspondents in Jaipur, Bhopal, Raipur and Hyderabad)