After September surge, Covid deaths on decline in Chandigarh

The reduction in fatalities is also coupled with active cases dipping below 10% and recovery rate inching towards 90%

Deaths due to Covid-19 in Chandigarh are on the decline after a surge in September.

Weekly data shows that between September 18 and 25, the highest number of 35 fatalities took place. This happened just after infection surged, with single-day highest of 449 positive cases reported on September 13, and active cases reached their peak at 3,171 on September 16.

“Present data suggests that we have achieved the peak in terms of both cases as well as deaths. The huge surge in deaths seen in mid-September has receded significantly,” said Dr Jagat Ram, director, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, adding that there is a direct correlation between the number of cases and deaths, and as new infections have started decreasing, fatalities will come down as well.

Dr Ram said during the surge in September, it was also seen that the severity of the disease had increased. “Many patients had comorbidities, which were aggravated due to the infection. “However, in the last couple of days, not many patients are reporting to the facility in such a serious condition,” he said.

The reduction in fatalities is also coupled with active cases dipping below 10% (at 9.3%) on Saturday, and recovery rate inching towards 90% (at 89.1%). In fact, the number of recoveries continues to outnumber fresh infections since September 17. Even on Saturday, 157 patients were discharged in comparison to 96 who tested positive. However, fatality rate that increased from 1.2% to 1.4% in the last week of September has since remained constant.

“There is a continued effort from the health department to daily monitor patients who are in home isolation and identify those at high risk,” said Dr VK Nagpal, joint director, UT health department. “Patients with comorbidities are being paid special attention, and in case of emergency, medical help is promptly available.”

Dr Nagpal said since the testing numbers remain above 1,000 on a daily basis now, “we are trying to identify and isolate the persons who have contracted the infection as early as possible”. “This all is expected to bring the fatality rate below 1%,” he said.

Dr Jagat Ram said hoping that people don’t resort to major violations of safety norms, it is unlikely that there will be another surge in infection. However, the PGIMER is taking no chances, and is making arrangements for Covid management till the next year, as it is unlikely the pandemic will end abruptly.