Delhi’s dry spell to continue today; rainfall to pick up later this week

“Even after August 28, only scattered or patchy rainfall is likely, as no intense pressure system is seen building up to trigger good rains in Delhi and the surrounding region. There may be light rain on August 31,” said a senior IMD official

Delhi is likely to continue with its dry spell on Thursday as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts no rain for the day with partly cloudy skies. IMD has forecast that rainfall would pick up in the capital later this week till August 28 at least.

People at India Gate in New Delhi earlier this month. (File photo)

“Even after August 28, only scattered or patchy rainfall is likely, as no intense pressure system is seen building up to trigger good rains in Delhi and the surrounding region. There may be light rain on August 31,” said a senior IMD official.

The minimum temperature on Monday is likely to be 27 degrees Celsius (°C) while the maximum temperature is predicted to reach 36°C. The maximum temperature was 36.4°C on Wednesday – three degrees above normal and the minimum temperature at 27.4°C was one degree above normal.

Weather officials also stressed that this was another example of erratic weather patterns Delhi has been recording over the last few years.

IMD scientists and private weather forecasters said that over the last decade, instead of receiving uniform rains, Delhi has been receiving short and intense rainfall. The number of rainy days has also reduced from around 15-17 between the years 2000 and 2009, to around 10-12 over the last 10 years.

This year, Delhi saw only five rainy days in August. But in these five days, the city received 214.5mm rainfall, a 3% surplus, the bulk of which was concentrated on August 21.

Meanwhile, Delhi’s air quality was in the moderate category on Thursday morning. Data from Central Pollution Control Board showed that the hourly air quality index (AQI) at 6am stood at 109. On Wednesday, the average 24-hour AQI was 115, which is also in the moderate category.

An AQI between zero and 50 is considered good, 51 and 100 satisfactory, 101 and 200 moderate, 201 and 300 poor, 301 and 400 very poor, and 401 and 500 severe.

On Wednesday, the Union ministry of earth science’s air quality monitoring centre, System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting And Research (Safar) said, “Delhi’s AQI is in the satisfactory category due to increased traffic emission from waterlogging in some areas and polluted air form north-west and will remain in the satisfactory category for the next two days. Moreover, higher ventilation does not allow dust to accumulate.”

A recent analysis by Climate Trends, a Delhi-based communications initiative building a narrative around climate ambition and low carbon development pathways, highlighted how high pollution levels impacts monsoon patterns in a region. The analysis said with the levels of toxic pollution increasing, in the coming years, monsoon rain may reduce by at least 10%.

“Air pollution is likely to decrease the southwest monsoon rainfall by 10%-15% for the entire country. Meanwhile, some places might even see rain drop up to 50%. It will also impact the dynamics of monsoon like cause a delay in onset,” said Dilip Ganguly, associate professor, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT-Delhi, who is one of the contributors to the analysis.