Tripura elections: Entry of new contender alters electoral dynamic

The BJP stormed to power in 2018 for the first time winning 36 seats, while its ally IPFT bagged eight.

With assembly elections less than a month away in Tripura, the next steps of the newest entrant to the state’s politics- Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma’s TIPRA (Tiprasa Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance) Motha- are being closely watched.

TIPRA chief Pradyot Deb Barma (centre) during a rally. (ANI)

Despite being pursued by all the major players in the state, from the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-Congress alliance, Deb Barma has played his cards close to his chest and insisted that he would only ally with a party that will accept in writing his demand for a separate state of Tipraland for indigenous groups.

Over the past few weeks, Deb Barma has held a series of discussions with the Indigenous Peoples’ Front of Tripura (IPFT) — BJP’s ally and a dominant player in state’s tribal politics — asking for it to be merged with his party for the “survival and existence of Tiprasa”.The meetings have been called “fruitful”, as the IPFT has decided to extend support to the royal scion in the upcoming polls.

“There has been no discussion regarding our core demand of separate state of Tipraland. The matter is not with the state and the Centre has never responded to it,” said IPFT working president Prem Kumar Reang. “On the other hand, our Bubagra (a king in Kokborok dialect, referring to Deb Barma) is working for the indigenous people. We have decided to support him in the assembly polls.”

The BJP stormed to power in 2018 for the first time winning 36 seats, while its ally IPFT bagged eight. The CPI(M), that had ruled the state for two decades after 1998, won the remaining 16 seats. Since then, four BJP legislators have switched over to the Trinamool Congress, Congress and TIPRA Motha. Later, three IPFT legislators joined Deb Barma’s party.

“We cannot fool and betray our poor people who have imposed faith on us. We shall make no compromise for forging alliance with anyone, till we get written assurances on Constitutional solution for our demand,” said Deb Barma, who floated his party in 2021. “If not, we shall contest alone. Win or lose, we will put in one last fight.”

Recalling he was offered chief ministership and even Rajya Sabha seat by different parties in the run-up to the 2018 assembly elections, Deb Barma, who was the Tripura Congress chief before quitting in 2019, said he never “compromised with his ideology”.

It has become a trend for regional parties to compromise with their core issues to forge an alliance for electoral benefits, he said. “I am not like them. Many people say I am not a politician. I want to do welfare for the overall society but not against anyone,” said Deb Barma. “Our fight is for our right. I cannot compromise for ‘something’ in return.”

He met the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) chairman and Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma last week in Delhi and expressed hope that his party’s demand will be taken into consideration. On Wednesday, a delegation from the party held talks with representatives of the Ministry of Home Affairs. The party chief however said that “contrary to rumours, there had been no talks of seat sharing.” “We have received intimation from ministry of home affairs that they would like to talk to us on our demand for a constitutional solution to our demand of Greater Tipraland. We have repeatedly said until we don’t get a written assurances from GOI on the constitutional solution of our demand we will not go in for any alliance leave alone seat sharing,” he said on Twitter.

The BJP meanwhile has expressed confidence that they will return to power. State BJP spokesperson Nabendu Bhattacharya said, “We have prepared ourselves to contest in all the 60 seats, if required. If any political party agrees with our party’s ideology, they may come for alliance discussion.”

CPI(M) veteran Pabitra Kar said, “Alliance can happen any time before polls. We have been working for development of the indigenous people for a long time and we can assure that we will continue to do it, unlike the BJP. Despite giving assurances before coming to power, they didn’t fulfil their promise to develop the socio-economic condition of indigenous people.”

Veteran political writer S Bhattacharya said, “In 2018 the BJP secured majority on its own but this time the 20 tribal seats could prove crucial in formation of the next government. All eyes are on the TIPRA Motha.”

Deb Barma entered politics with Youth Congress in 2008 and became the party’s state unit president in 2018. However, the party fared poorly in both the 2018 assembly polls and the general elections the following year, winning only 1.7% and 27% vote share, respectively. Deb Barma quit the Congress in 2019 over disagreement with party’s central leadership over several issues, including revision of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA).

In 2021, he floated the Tipra Motha with an agenda of separate state of Greater Tipraland for the indigenous communities of Tripura and other northeastern states. Soon after it was floated, several tribal-dominated parties, including National Conference of Tripura (NCT), Indigenous Nationalist Party of Twipra (INPT), IPFT-Tipraha – a breakaway faction of IPFT — and Tipraland State Party merged with Deb Barma’s party.

In its first electoral test barely two months after the formation of the party, Tipra Motha broke the Left domination in the TTAADC, winning 18 out of the 28 elected seats. Despite being in power in the state, the BJP could manage only nine seats.