3rd Covid wave in Maha: Curbs, vax can delay it, reduce impact

Maharashtra is likely to witness the third wave of Covid-19 infections as early as mid-August, according to state Covid task force members, but they feel curbs, coupled with faster vaccination, could delay it and reduce its impact

Maharashtra is likely to witness the third wave of Covid-19 infections as early as mid-August, according to state Covid task force members, but they feel curbs, coupled with faster vaccination, could delay it and reduce its impact.

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Chief minister Uddhav Thackeray had convened a meeting on Wednesday over preparations for the possible third wave, where the state health department had projected that the state could see double the cases in a possible third wave, while the active case count could go up to 800,000.

Dr Rahul Pandit, task force member and head intensivist at Fortis Hospital, Mulund, said mathematical projections suggest the next wave could hit in eight to 12 weeks of the second wave ebbing and the state must prepare for it hit in the next four weeks.

“The third wave hit the UK was shorter [than the 8-12 weeks period]. Therefore, we have to be prepared based on all models. We have to be prepared in the next four weeks, let the wave come whenever it comes. Our efforts should be towards preparing for it, at the same time, avoiding it altogether. It may not hit us for another eight to 12 weeks but we need to be prepared it before,” he said, adding that no model can accurately predict the virus.

Dr Pandit added the state needs to learn from the lessons it got from second wave and experiences in dealing with the Delta variant. The B.1.617.2 strain or the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 was identified as one of the main drivers of the second wave of Covid-19 infections that devastated parts of India, including Maharashtra, earlier this year. The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 has further mutated to form the Delta plus or ‘AY.1’ variant.

However, Dr Pandit said the new variant is not well documented. “We have to think about the worst-case scenario and then we must prepare and come out with the solutions so that we are not caught off-guard. We have to assume that the virus will mutate. Especially since we have learned out lessons from the Delta variant and the UK variant,” he said.

Another task force member Dr Shashank Joshi said that the onset of a possible next wave of Covid-19 infections could be pushed with keeping curbs on and vaccinating a large chunk of the population in the next one or two months. The task force has cautioned against crowding and lack of covid-appropriate behaviour which would invite the third wave faster.

“It is predicted that the third wave can come after easing of the curbs completely, which would be another month and a half or two months from now at the most. But it is unlikely [that it will hit soon] as curbs are still in place. What is worrying is the non-adherence to Covid appropriate protocols and crowding,” Dr Joshi said.

Of the 35 districts in the state, 19 districts and some cities including Mumbai, Nagpur and Pune do not have strict curbs as part of the five-level unlock plan. Senior government officials said that the unlock mechanism is theoretically fine but enforcement has been an issue. “For instance, the activities have almost opened up completely in Mumbai. There is no enforcement of the curfew after 8pm. Certain activities like opening of malls are not open in Mumbai, but neighbouring Navi Mumbai has malls open. The mobility of people is unrestricted,” a health department official said who did not wish to be named.

Maharashtra added 9,830 fresh Covid-19 infections, taking the tally to 5,944,710. It reported 236 deaths in the last 24 hours, while 400 fatalities were added to the tally taking the death toll to 116,026. The state’s active case count stood at 139,960.

Mumbai on Thursday added 660 fresh Covid-19 cases, taking its tally to 717,832. Mumbai saw 20 deaths in the past 24 hours, pushing the death toll to 15,247. The active cases in the city were 18417 on Thursday.

Of the 400 deaths that were added to the tally after reconciliation process, 137 occurred in Ahmednagar, 63 in Pune, 32 in Nagpur, 28 in Nashik, 23 in Sangli, 21 in Aurangabad, 20 in Ratnagiri, 13 in Solapur, 11 in Kolhapur, nine in Satara, six in Thane, five each in Beed and Raigad, four in Akola, three each in Bhandara, Hingoli and Nanded, two each in Buldhana, Latur, Osmanabad, Wardha, and Yavatmal, 1 each in Chandrapur, Nandurbar, Palghar and Sindhudurg districts.