As cases drop, number of covid tests halved in Mumbai

With a constant decrease in the number of daily Covid-19 cases reported in Mumbai for the past two weeks, the tests conducted in the city have also almost halved

With a constant decrease in the number of daily Covid-19 cases reported in Mumbai for the past two weeks, the tests conducted in the city have also almost halved. While an average of 50,000 tests was conducted per day in Mumbai during mid-April, they have now come down to an average of 20,000-25,000 daily.

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Officials have attributed the decrease in the number to fewer people coming forward for a test. Experts believe that Mumbai needs to continue testing more people. They also believe that it is too early to tell if the second wave is declining, but the city must not assume that the threat of Covid-19 has passed.

About 35%-40% of the tests conducted per day are rapid antigen tests, which on an average have a lower positivity rate than RT-PCR (reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction) tests.

On Sunday, Mumbai conducted only 17,640 tests, the results of which were revealed on Monday. Of these, Mumbai reported 1,232 cases with a positivity rate of 6.9%. Mumbai also reported 48 deaths, with a case fatality rate of 3.8%.

So far, Mumbai has conducted a total of 5,916,245 tests. The total number of positive cases in Mumbai is 689,062, with a cumulative positivity rate of 11.9%.

The average positivity per day in Mumbai has now dropped to 6% to 8%, down from 20% and above seen in mid-April. Positivity rate is the number of positive Covid-19 cases reported as a percent of the total tests done.

By mid-March, Mumbai had started conducting at least 50,000 tests a day and on some occasions up to 55,000 tests. Experts and authorities believe the second wave started around March 11. On April 4, Mumbai reported the highest number of Covid-19 cases in a single day – 11,204 – of 51,319 tests conducted, revealed BMC data. By April 20, the daily tests dropped to below 40,000. For the past five days, Mumbai has been conducting lower than 30,000 tests per day. However, on all these days Mumbai reported less than 2,000 cases, with a positivity rate of 6% to 8%.

The steady decline in cases reported per day is in no way indicative of the larger picture that the second wave may soon pass, experts say.

Dr Om Shrivastav, who is a part of Maharashtra government’s Covid task force, said, “We can’t look at Mumbai in isolation. The cases have come down, but cases in the rest of the state or country have not. So what happens when restrictions are lifted? To say that the second wave is declining, we should wait till the end of September at least and then take a relook at the figures and decide.”

Experts also believe that the city needs to keep up high testing numbers despite the lower positivity rate. Dr Rahul Pandit, another member of the task force, said, “I have always said we need to keep testing in large numbers even if the number of cases per day begins to drop. We may record lower positivity rate during this time, but until we have a positivity rate below 5%, testing in high numbers is a better strategy.”

“This can be done by contact tracing in large numbers during the first 24 hours. We can target areas which have reported a higher number of cases, for example certain wards or localities in Mumbai. Eventually, we will not report cases in clusters and will see isolated positive cases. Even though numbers show an improvement in the situation, we cannot consider this and become slack.” Dr Pandit added.