Lok Sabha Polls: BJP’s problem of plenty, MVA looks for candidates

Normally, the understanding in any political alliance is that each constituent keeps its seats and decides whether to renominate the sitting MP or pick a new candidate. However, to ensure victory, the BJP is preparing a plan for all the constituencies including those held by its allies

With barely eight months until the next Lok Sabha elections and with Maharashtra’s 48 seats crucial in the arithmetic of power, both the rival coalitions are busy searching for the right candidates — who can win.

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In the ruling alliance led by the BJP, there is a problem of plenty. The three parties together have 38 MPs—BJP (23), CM Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena (13) and Ajit Pawar led NCP (one). Besides, Navneet Rana, an independent MP from Amravati, also supports the BJP.

Normally, the understanding in any political alliance is that each constituent keeps its seats and decides whether to renominate the sitting MP or pick a new candidate. However, to ensure victory, the BJP is preparing a plan for all the constituencies including those held by its allies. It also wants to contest in more than 25 seats, which it had in 2019 in alliance with Shiv Sena. It will try to get its allies to concede a few seats. It will also ask its allies not to field a few sitting MPs since its surveys show that people in their constituencies are not happy with them. It is also likely to make a few heavyweight ministers contest to improve the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) prospects.

In the rival Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) camp, the scenario is completely different. Between the three parties they have nine sitting MPs — Shiv Sena (UBT)-(five), Sharad Pawar led NCP- (three) and Congress (one —Chandraour MP Suresh Dhanorkar who died, and byelection is yet to happen). They will have to look for 39 candidates.

The MVA leaders say they would go by the elective merit of candidates available in each constituent and not just by the number of seats contested by them in 2019. This would also mean some surprising and unexpected candidates could be fielded by them. They are yet to decide on including Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, which would stake claim on a few seats.

Significantly, with Ajit Pawar defecting to the NDA, the BJP is now eyeing a few seats it never won. That includes Baramati, the citadel of the Pawar family. Now, will Ajit serve Baramati on a platter to the BJP?

The Ambedkar riddle for MVA

Earlier this week, senior Congress leader Ashok Chavan said he was hopeful that Prakash Ambedkar would join the MVA. At the same time, Ambedkar told the media that he didn’t think Congress and the NCP were clear about him coming on board as an ally. All the three parties in the MVA accept that including the VBA—which has influence over backward community votes —in their coalition will make it a strong political front but Congress and NCP chief Sharad Pawar are still weighing the pros and cons of the same.

Congress leaders say Rahul Gandhi may meet Ambedkar during his Maharashtra visit and things could change after that. On the other hand, Sharad Pawar’s aides say he is not sure whether Ambedkar would stay or disrupt their plans by walking out at the eleventh hour over the issue of seat sharing. Ambedkar, on the other hand, would definitely bargain for a certain number of seats for both Lok Sabha and the assembly. Uddhav Thackeray, who has already announced his party’s alliance with Ambedkar’s VBA, is rooting for him. Leaders from both sides agree that they have a good potential together provided they are able to trust each other. And that is a million-dollar question.

Shinde’s loose cannons

Some of Shinde’s MLAs have become a headache for him. Bharat Gogawale, Mahad MLA, tops the list, as he aspires for a ministerial berth. He has been telling the media that Shinde has promised to make him a minister. Recently during a party meeting, Gogawale said how he had to sacrifice his ministerial berth for some of his colleagues. Gogawale said that one MLA had claimed his wife could commit suicide if he was not made a minister. Other threatened to resign while third said union minister Narayan Rane would finish him in Konkan if he was not a minister. Since then, every time mediapersons see Gogawale, they ask him to reveal the names of his colleagues, but he tries to avoid the same though it is an open secret who they are. Another Shinde camp MLA, Sanjay Shirsat, told the media that Shinde was extremely unwell forcing the CMO to issue a clarification. Bachhu Kadu, Amravati MLA, who runs a small party, Prahar Janshakti, and was a minister in the MVA government before he sided with Shinde, doesn’t leave a single opportunity to take potshots at the government. Unhappy that he was not made a minister, he recently vowed he will not accept the post now even if he was forced to take it. He also remarked that the government will bite the dust if Ajit Pawar is made chief minister. Shinde may work even 24 hours a day, but he surely hasn’t figured out how to rein in the loose cannons in his camp.

Pawar’s young brigade

Two young MLAs in Sharad Pawar camp, Rohit Pawar and Sandeep Kshirsagar, were credited for the good show of strength during the faction’s rally at Beed last week. Kshirsagar, an NCP MLA from Beed, earned praise from Sharad Pawar who implied that he can be the future of the district and a challenger to local heavyweight Dhananjay Munde, who is a key associate of Ajit Pawar. Beed rally has reaffirmed the fact that Sharad Pawar is promoting young leaders as he is trying to reach out to young voters just the way he did in 2019. It won’t be a surprise if young leaders such as Rohit, Kshirsagar, Sunil Bhusara and Sakshana Salgar (who made a forceful speech at the rally) are seen getting centrestage in Sharad Pawar’s campaign.