Punjab, Haryana may have crossed the peak in coronavirus cases: Expert

The expert said data shows that the daily increase in deaths across the country has been two deaths per million population over the last week.

Punjab, Haryana and Kerala seem to have crossed the peak in coronavirus cases, says a prominent public health specialist, who expects India to keep Covid-19 deaths at less than 8,000 in the country with strict enforcement of standard protocols and hospitals in high alert.

Medical workers collect swab samples from Haryana Police personnel for COVID-19 tests, during a nationwide lockdown due to coronavirus pandemic, at Police Line, in Gurugram, India, on Sunday, 10 May 2020. (Yogendra Kumar/HT PHOTO)

India should not be seen as one entity when it comes to tackling Covid-19, because the population size across sates and districts vary, health systems vary and level of literacy varies across and within states, said professor GVS Murthy, director of Indian Institute of Public Health, Hyderabad.

Therefore, it will be more appropriate to talk about state-level and district-level peaks, he said.

As against total cases per million population, which increased in India from 17.6 cases per million on April 25 to 99.9 per million on May 25, in Maharashtra it rose from 61.9/ million in April to 383/ million on May 25, Professor Murthy noted.

In Tamil Nadu it increased from 23.4 per million on April 25 to 199.3 per million on May 25, and in Gujarat from 48.1 per million in April to 219 per million on May 25. Delhi has shown the steepest increase in the country from 140 per million on April 25 to 690 per million on May 25.

“These states (Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Delhi) seem to be nearing the peak while those like Kerala, Punjab and Haryana seem to have crossed the peak,” Prof Murthy said.

“Since six states (Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Delhi, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh) contribute 70% cases in the country, unless these states peak, the country peak cannot be reached.

From the present trends, this can happen as early as early June to as late as the middle of July, he said|.

On his assessment about “eventual” Covid-19 deaths in India, Professor Murthy said evidence from some models shows that nearly 80,000-100,000 deaths have been avoided due to the lockdown.

He said data shows that the daily increase in deaths across the country has been two deaths per million population over the last week.