IIT-D researchers develop dashboard to predict the spread of Covid-19

Researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi (IIT-D) have developed a web-based dashboard for predicting the spread of Covid-19 across the country.

Researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi (IIT-D) have developed a web-based dashboard for predicting the spread of Covid-19 across the country.

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The dashboard, PRACRITI (PRediction and Assessment of CoRona Infections and Transmission in India), gives detailed state-wise and district-wise predictions of infections in India, the institute said on Friday.

According to a statement issued by IIT-D on Friday, such a platform will be highly useful for health care bodies, local and central authorities, to efficiently plan for different future scenarios and resource allocation.

“A key parameter of interest on COVID-19 is the basic reproduction number ‘R0’ and its countrywide variability. R0 refers to the number of people to whom the disease spreads from a single infected person. For instance, if an active Covid-19 patient infects two uninfected persons, the R0 is two. Hence, reduction of R0 is the key in controlling and mitigating the Covid-19 in India,” the institute said in a statement. “PRACRITI provides the R0 values of each district and state in India based on the data available from sources such as the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), Govt. of India; National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), and World Health Organization (WHO).”

NM Anoop Krishnan, Civil Engineering Department, IIT- Delhi said, “Getting the district-wise R0 is crucial as this will enable authorities to know the exact rate of spread in India locally.”

The predictions in the dashboard will be based on a mathematical model that divides the population into four classes i.e. susceptible, exposed, infected, and removed. “Susceptible” refers to people who have not been exposed to the coronavirus, “exposed” refers to those who have been exposed to the virus from an infected person, “infected” refers to those who are actively infected with Covid-19, and “removed” refers to those who are no longer a carrier of the virus,” the statement read.

It will also include the impact of the movement of population across states and districts in the spread of the Covid-19.

“Based on the computed values of R0, a detailed district-wise model for India to predict the number of an actively infected person in each district can be developed,” it added