The most fickle job in elite sports | Number Theory

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Imagine taking up a job knowing that there’s a 50% chance you will be fired in less than one year. That’s the occupational hazard of being a top-flight football club manager, arguably the job with the least security in elite sports and one of the most demanding. In the top five club football leagues in Europe, all of which are barely a month and three games old in the current season, Erik ten Hag has lost his job at Bayer Leverkusen and Nuno Santo at Nottingham Forest. Elsewhere, in Turkey, Jose Mourinho has been booted out at Fenerbahçe, the seventh time in his 25-year coaching career that he has been sacked by one of the 11 clubs he has been in charge of.

Nottingham Forest manager Nuno Espirito Santo (Action Images via Reuters)

A long year

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  A long year

  Across the five tier-I club leagues—in England, Spain, Germany, Italy and France—the median managerial tenure in the current season is just 425 days and their average age is about 49 years. In other words, only half the managers across the 96 clubs that make up this set of five leagues have been in their current assignment for anything above one year and two months. Three of the five leagues—England, France and Spain—have the same median number, of 425 days. But this median number drops to 254 days for Germany and to just 95 days in Italy. Put another way, half the current managers in tier-I football in Germany have been in charge of their current club for about eight months. For Italy, that figure is just about three months.
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  In start mode

  Italy’s Serie A in 2025-26 is a sample of what the lofty demands of club football in Europe, and the job insecurity it inherently breeds. Of the 20 clubs, as many as 14 clubs have a manager who has been in charge for less than one year. This list ranges from the old guard (AC Milan) to the newly-promoted (Cremonese). In Germany’s Bundesliga too, as many as 11 of the 18 tier-I clubs this year have a manager who has been in charge for less than one year. It also has the ignominy of the first firing of this season. In the lead up to the season, Bayer Leverkusen appointed former Manchester United manager Erik ten Hag after losing Xabi Alonso to Real Madrid. But after only three competitive games in charge, it decided that ten Hag wasn’t a good fit and replaced him.
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  Club lifers

  In striking contrast to Leverkusen’s action, there’s another German club in the Bundesliga this year that is the portrait of stability, at least for now. Frank Schmidt has been the head coach of 1. FC Heidenheim since 2007. It’s a club he also played at. During his managerial career, the club has crept up through the lower tiers, and is playing in the Bundesliga for the third season this year. At 18 years, Schmidt is the longest-serving manager at a single club in German football history. He’s also the manager with the longest current tenure in this season’s set of 96 clubs across these five leagues. Following him are Diego Simeone at Atletico Madrid (14 years) and Pep Guardiola at Manchester City (9 years). It’s striking that of the 10 managers with the longest current tenures, five of them are in the English Premier League.
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  Coaching carousel

  While the current set of numbers seem fickle, it’s interesting to note that managerial turnover has improved in some leagues over the past decade, and worsened in other leagues. We divided the past decade into two equal halves. Across the leagues, in three of the five leagues, thing have become better, relatively speaking. These are Spain, England and Germany. Having said that, managerial turnover remains high. In the 20-club EPL, for example, the period between 2016-17 and 2020-21 saw, on average, about 30 manager appointments every year. In the subsequent five-year period, this is down to 21.3 new appointments per year. It’s an improvement, but it still demonstrates a high turnover. In football, coaching comes with a short leash.