Gurugram administration unclear on Covid-19 number projections

Instead, administration officials now — based on existing test positivity rate data, trends seen in Delhi and Mumbai and extrapolation done over two months — insist that Covid-19 projection is a dynamic process and a truly reflective figure might be difficult to arrive at.

The Gurugram administration has retracted its earlier prediction that stated that the number of Covid-19 cases in the district may touch 35,000 by June end — which basically would have meant the district adding more than 30,000 cases in the next seven days.

According to the forecast of Covid-19 cases in Gurugram prepared by the district administration on June 13, at least 35,000 Covid-19 cases were likely to be reported by June 30. (Yogendra Kumar/HT file photo)

Instead, administration officials now — based on existing test positivity rate data, trends seen in Delhi and Mumbai and extrapolation done over two months — insist that Covid-19 projection is a dynamic process and a truly reflective figure might be difficult to arrive at.

Independent health experts believed that the tally in Gurugram is likely to may be reach up to 7,000 cases by month-end. They agreed with district administration officials and said that predicting Covid-19 cases is a complex process, while adding that such forecasts aid in public health decision making, like augmenting facilities and beds required for tertiary care.

According to the forecast of Covid-19 cases in Gurugram prepared by the district administration on June 13, at least 35,000 Covid-19 cases were likely to be reported by June 30. Out of these, nearly 80% would need isolation beds, 15% would need general ward beds and the remaining 5% would need to be admitted in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) for ventilator support.

As per estimates, the count of infected people in the district was likely to touch 1.5 lakh by July-end and almost 2.5 lakh by August. On the other hand, the adjoining national capital’s future projections were almost 5.5 lakh cases by July 31 alone.

Vivek Kalia, nodal officer, hospital management, said, “It would be premature to divulge any quantified figure for Covid-19. However, based on the analysis of data of testing undertaken, doubling rate and the number of positive cases needing hospitalisation, medical facilities have been assessed and requisite provisions have been made.”

Even Ashok Sangwan, divisional commissioner, in a press conference earlier this week, had said, “The projected numbers are high but making projections is a dynamic process. Testing has increased in the city to identify cases. With new cases pouring in daily, we are prepared with our healthcare facilities, if the numbers surge.”.

Confirming Sangwan’s view, a senior state official, confirmed that the projected figures were inflated. “Nobody can make exact Covid-19 future projections. But based on the increasing number of cases and our projections, we are trying to arrange treatment facilities.”

Data expert, Dheeraj Singh, who has been closely monitoring Gurugram’s and Haryana’s Covid-19 data, said that Covid cases daily growth rate in June for Gurugram is 7.8% with positivity rate at 36.7%. “It reflects a combination of high growth and likely wider infection spread with need for tripling the number of tests being conducted. Even at the current rate, total cases in Gurugram will reach 7,000 by June end.”

According to him, the numbers will shoot up if testing is adequately scaled up. “However recent testing numbers are seeing wide fluctuations. The lowest (169 tests) number of tests were done on June 14. On June 21, a record 930 tests were conducted in a single day,” he said.

Professor Abhijit Das, department of computer science and engineering, Indian Institute of Technology – Kharagpur, who has developed a model that predicts the Covid-19 transmission, said, “The prediction problem at hand is far more complicated than weather or stock-market predictions.”

Das’s model relies on the daily count of infection, especially of the most affected states like Delhi, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal. As per predictive study conducted by him, the disease will continue to spread till September.

He said, “This is an attempt to predict the spread of Covid-19 in our country. However, a reliable and stable predictor could not be designed despite several technical improvements. Still, the current system shows close match with the past data, and can be used as an indication of how protracted the pandemic can be in India.”

“Every such model is inaccurate to some degree, but is at the same time capable of giving an approximate view of the future. Perhaps nothing better can be achieved at this point of time,” Das added.

On the other hand, Rajib Dasgupta, professor, community health medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), said that the department of science and technology (DST) was working towards a Covid -19 Indian National Supermodel to forecast the spread and monitor future transmissions.

“We do not know how soon this will be operational. But currently, two standard approaches — Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model and the Logistic Growth model — are being used to predict the endpoint of Covid-19 both at national level and for the three high-incidence states of Maharashtra, Gujarat and Delhi,” said Dasgupta.

The challenge according to him will be to make future projections when affected states have different experiences, and within them the figures fluctuate between urban and rural areas.