Bihar exit poll 2025: MGB to give tough fight but its NDA again, no fire by JSP, pollsters predict

The exit poll projections for the Bihar assembly elections 2025 will be released shortly, at 6:30 PM.

In the 243-member Bihar assembly, a simple majority of 122 seats is required to form the government.

In 2020, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won the Bihar assembly elections with 125 seats.

However, most pollsters had predicted an edge for the opposition alliance, Mahagathbandhan.

What did pollsters project in 2020: Exit poll data said:

• News18-Today's Chanakya had predicted 180 seats for the Mahagathbandhan and 55 seats for the NDA.
• India Today-Axis My India, similar to Today's Chanakya, also projected a landslide victory for the opposition Grand Alliance with 139-161 seats, predicting just 69-91 seats for the NDA.
• Republic-Jan Ki Baat projected 118-138 seats for the opposition alliance and 91-117 for the NDA, predicting 5-8 seats for the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas).
• Patriotic Voter projected a 129-seat win for the NDA, while predicting 107 seats for the Mahagathbandhan.
• P-Marq's numbers also predicted a win for the NDA with 123-135 seats, while the Grand Alliance was projected to bag 104-115 seats.

The exit poll projections for the Bihar assembly elections will begin from 6:30 pm, with pollsters such as Axis My India, Peoples Pulse, P-Marq, releasing their predictions.

Officials have said that the highest-ever voter turnout of 67.14 per cent has been provisionally recorded at the close of polling in the second phase of Bihar assembly elections.

Ahead of the exit poll projections for the Bihar assembly election, Union minister and HAM(S) chief Jitan Ram Manjhi expressed confidence in the National Democratic Alliance's performance and said that its candidates will win "around 80 out of 122 seats".

As voting for the second and final phase of voting is about to conclude, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader and Mahagathbandhan's chief ministerial candidate Tejashwi Yadav expressed joy over the "reports of bumper voting" coming in for the second phase of the elections.

"My heart is filled with joy; my Bihar has truly worked wonders. Reports of bumper voting are coming in from everywhere. The elderly, women, youth, traders, farmers, every caste, every class is enthusiastically ensuring their participation in this grand festival of democracy. May this momentum not stop, may these steps not halt," Yadav said in a post on X.

Bihar saw a strong voter turnout in the second and final phase of the 2025 assembly elections, with 67.14% turnout recorded till 5 pm, according to the Election Commission.

The figure may rise as voters still in queues will be allowed to cast their votes. The state appears headed for one of its highest turnouts in recent years.

Jan Suraaj founder Prashant Kishor said that migrant labourers have emerged as the “X factor” in the ongoing Bihar assembly elections, crediting them for the high voter turnout in the first phase.

In an interview with ANI, Kishor said the nearly 65% turnout reflected voters’ enthusiasm for an alternative beyond the long-dominant choices of Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar. Calling migrant workers the “biggest assets of change,” he added that those once considered “captive voters of the NDA” are now showing hope for a new political option.

The key faces in the 2025 Bihar assembly election are:

• Nitish Kumar
• Tejashwi Yadav
• Samrat Choudhary
• Vijay Kumar Sinha
• Tej Pratap Yadav
• Nitin Nabin
• Nitish Mishra
• Haribhushan Thakur 'Bachaul'
• Nand Kishore Yadav
• Bijendra Prasad Yadav
• Vijay Kumar Choudhary
• Shrawon Kumar
• Leshi Singh
• Maheshwar Hazari
• Chirag Paswan
• Prashant Kishor

Uttar Pradesh panchayati raj minister and Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) president Om Prakash Rajbhar, an ally of the National Democratic Alliance, set off a political storm on Monday by claiming that the high turnout of voters witnessed in the first phase might lead to the formation of a Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led Mahagathbandhan government in Bihar.

Rajbhar said his observation is based on the polling data of the past assembly elections in Bihar.

“In the mid-1990s when the voter turnout increased, the RJD formed the government. In the 2025 assembly election too, the vote percentage has increased and it will be no surprise for me if the Grand Alliance forms government,” he said.

The key parties contesting in the Bihar assembly elections 2025 are:

• Rashtriya Janata Dal
• Janata Dal (United)
• Bharatiya Janata Party
• Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas)
• Indian National Congress
• Communist Marxist Party (Marxist–Leninist) Liberation
• Vikassheel Insaan Party
• Jan Suraaj Party
• Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular)
• Rashtriya Lok Morcha

In the first phase of voting, which took place on November 6, an approximate voter turnout of 65.08 per cent was recorded, as per data from the Election Commission of India.

In the second phase of polling, which is currently underway, the voter turnout stood at 60.40 per cent at 3 pm.

The special intensive revision (SIR) of voters' list, which commenced as an all-India exercise from November 4, might leave its imprimatur on Bihar.

A Hindustan Times report answers this question: How would the deletion of about 47 lakh voters under the Election Commission-sponsored SIR impact the poll outcome?

DM Diwakar, distinguished social scientist, now with the Development Research Institute, Jalsain, said: “It is certain that SIR’s voter list revision will leave its mark on the Bihar elections. But when the Election Commission is compromised, with the government removing the Chief Justice of India from the selection of its top officials, the battle becomes one-sided.”

He added, "The only way for opposition parties to counter this revision, is to ensure sound booth management and be present in large numbers on the day of the polling.”

Read further here.

In the 243-member Bihar assembly, a simple majority mark of 122 seats is required to form the government.

In 2015 as well, the Rashtriya Janata Dal emerged as the largest party in the state with 80 seats. Here's how many seats each party won in the 2015 Bihar assembly election.

RJD: 80

JD(U): 71

BJP: 53

Congress: 27

IND: 4

Others: 8

There are a total of 243 seats in the Bihar Assembly, of which 38 are reserved for the Scheduled Caste and two for the Scheduled Tribe.

As of September 30, 2025, there are a total of 7.4 crore voters in Bihar. Of these figures, around 3.9 crore are male and 3.5 crore are female.

Survey teams approach voters outside polling booths, using structured questionnaires with close-ended questions to ensure clarity in responses.

The samples are drawn from both urban and rural areas across regions to represent diverse demographics. Once data is compiled, analysts assess trends and likely seat projections for each party or alliance.

Exit polls are conducted immediately after voters cast their ballots, aiming to understand voting patterns and predict possible outcomes of the election.

Respondents are asked about their voting choices and demographic details such as age, gender, and community to identify trends. While not always fully accurate, exit polls offer an early sense of voter sentiment and swing patterns ahead of the official results.

The reliability of these surveys depends on factors like sampling method, regional coverage, and voter participation. Unlike opinion polls conducted before voting, exit polls often reflect more realistic trends as they are carried out on polling day.

As the polling for the second phase of the Bihar assembly elections 2025 is set to conclude, all eyes are now on the much-anticipated exit poll projections.

Exit poll projections for the elections to the 243-member Bihar assembly will begin from 6:30 pm. Polling agencies such as Today’s Chanakya, Axis My India, CVoter, CSDS, and Times Now will issue their seat estimates once polling ends.

Readers can track exit poll projections, analysis and other detailed information on the predictions here at Hindustan Times.

Viewers and readers can follow the Bihar election exit poll predictions on television news channels, pollster websites, and their social media handles.

Voting for the second phase of Bihar assembly elections will conclude at around 5 pm. Shortly after this, at 6:30 pm, pollsters will begin releasing their exit poll projections.

Majority of the pollsters had projected a win for the Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance, predicting that Nitish Kumar's National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could fall short of a clear majority in the assembly elections.

However, to everyone's surprise, the NDA emerged victorious, winning 125 seats. Of these, the BJP won 74 seats, the JD(U) won 43 seats, and the VIP and HAM(S) secured four seats each.

Notably, the RJD emerged as the largest party by winning 75 seats, despite its alliance losing the assembly polls.

Exit poll projections:

• News18-Today's Chanakya had predicted 180 seats for the Mahagathbandhan and 55 seats for the NDA. India Today-Axis My India also projected a landslide victory for the opposition Grand Alliance with 139-161 seats, predicting just 69-91 seats for the NDA.
• Patriotic Voter projected a 129-seat win for the NDA, while predicting 107 seats for the Mahagathbandhan. P-Marq's numbers also predicted a win for the NDA with 123-135 seats, while the Grand Alliance was projected to bag 104-115 seats.

The Bihar assembly election 2025 is taking place in two phases. Polling for the first phase took place on November 6, with a voter turnout of 65.08 per cent. The second phase of voting, taking place today, on November 11, is underway.

The counting of votes is scheduled to take place on November 14, following which the Election Commission of India will officially declare the results.

The key electoral battle is between Nitish Kumar's National Democratic Alliance and Tejashwi Yadav's Mahagathbandhan. The high-stakes elections will determine whether Nitish Kumar will retain his throne or Tejashwi Yadav will emerge on top.

Voting for the second and final phase of the Bihar assembly elections is underway, with the voter turnout standing at 60.40 per cent at 3 PM, according to official data from the Election Commission of India.

The exit poll projections for the Bihar assembly elections will be released from 6:30 pm, shortly after the voting for the second and final phase concludes.

The voting for the final phase of the Bihar assembly polls will conclude at around 5 pm.