Cold spell expected in northwest India from Jan 24: IMD
Though the IMD had forecast normal to above normal temperatures over most parts of northwest and north India in the forecast for January, so far, the month has been marked by extremely low day time temperatures in the region.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday another cold spell is expected to affect northwest India from January 24 onwards because of back-to-back western disturbances that brought widespread rainfall to the northern plains and snowfall to the hills.
Though the IMD had forecast normal to above normal temperatures over most parts of northwest and north India in the forecast for January, so far, the month has been marked by extremely low day time temperatures in the region.
The probability forecast for January-February- March had forecast normal minimum temperatures in January over most parts of north, northwest and northeast India and adjoining areas of east India. Below normal to normal minimum temperatures are most likely over many areas of the north peninsula and some parts of central India, the forecast had added. The probability forecast also indicated the maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal temperatures over some parts of northwest & north India and most parts of northeast India.
“You are right that average temperatures that we record in January may turn out to be below average mainly because of low day time temperatures. But we can comment on the forecast only after the month ends. We had also forecast above normal rains this month which we are seeing. The low day time temperatures were mainly because of cloudy conditions and incursion of very cold northerly winds following western disturbances that impacted the Western Himalayan region,” said DS Pai, head of IMD’s climate research and services department in Pune.
“When the active western disturbance which affects northwest India on January 23 and 24 moves away and northerly winds set in once again we can expect another phase of drop in temperatures,” he added.
The IMD forecast had said rainfall during the month is likely to be above normal over north India over 124% of the long period average (average January rain from 1961-2010.) So far (January 1 to January 20) rainfall is 245% excess with all subdivisions of northwest India including Haryana, Delhi, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Rajasthan recording large excess (over 60%) rain.
Many parts of northwest India have recorded cold to severe cold day conditions for over a week now. On Wednesday, Agra recorded a maximum temperature 11.9°C, 10.4°C below normal; Bareilly recorded 13.1°C, 7.1°C below normal; Jhansi recorded 14.5°C, 8.7°C below normal; Lucknow 14.6°C, 7°C below normal; Kanpur 14.8°C, 8.1°C below normal; Banda 13.6°C, 8.3°C below normal; Bhatinda 12.8°C, 7.8°C; Hisar 15.5°C, 4.7°C below normal and Chandigarh recorded 14.6°C, 6.5°C. below normal.
“Due to clouding and some local factors there was a light rain over many parts of northwest India last night. This led to dense fog formation over Uttar Pradesh and Delhi NCR. After the western disturbance on January 5-6, there was formation of a low cloud layer that obstructed sunlight. This, combined with northerly cold winds, led to severe cold day conditions over several places for 8-10 days this month when day temperatures ranged from 9°C-15°C with a departure of 5°C-8°C degrees from normal. In 2015, there were 11-15 cold days recorded. Cold day conditions are not recorded every year so we cannot say what is the average to be expected,” said RK Jenamani, senior scientist at national weather forecasting centre.
“Last night (Wednesday) there was isolated rainfall in the plains and snowfall in the hills. Once again, due to an approaching western disturbance on January 21, there is likely to be an induced cyclonic circulation over West Rajasthan and adjoining areas. There will be rainfall and isolated hailstorm over many parts of northwest India including Delhi NCR. There will be rainfall up to West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand until January 23. Due to a change to northerly winds January 24 onwards there is likely to be a drop in temperatures by 3°C-4°C,” explained Mahesh Palawat, vice-president (meteorology and climate change), Skymet Weather Services.
A western disturbance as a cyclonic circulation is lying over north Pakistan and neighbourhood at 3.1 km above mean sea level.
An induced cyclonic circulation is lying over central parts of Rajasthan.
A fresh active western disturbance is likely to affect northwest India from January 21 onwards.
An induced cyclonic circulation is very likely to form over southwest Rajasthan on January 22. Isolated to scattered rainfall or snowfall is likely over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during next 2 days and increase thereafter with widespread rainfall/snowfall on January 22 and 23 and reduction thereafter. Isolated to scattered rainfall very likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and East Rajasthan on January 20-21 and increase thereafter with widespread rainfall on January 22 and 23. Strong surface winds (20-30 kmph) very likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh on January 21 and 22, IMD said in its bulletin on Thursday.
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