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Congress banks on INDIA arithmetic, poll pitches to spring a big surprise

Mar 17, 2024 06:39 AM IST

The Congress is banking on a number of key factors in its bid to do well in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections that will be held in seven phases starting April 19

The coming elections may see the Congress meet another record.

The INDIA bloc, comprising 28 parties, was formed last year to take on BJP. (Hindustan Times)
The INDIA bloc, comprising 28 parties, was formed last year to take on BJP. (Hindustan Times)

The only time the Congress lost three consecutive Lok Sabha elections was between 1996 and 1999. But in the past two general elections, the party that ruled India for 54 years was so badly trounced by the Bharatiya Janata Party that it fell short of even the number to claim the leader of the opposition’s status in the Lok Sabha.

In this election, too, the Congress faces an uphill task . High on confidence, Prime Minister Narendra Modi already announced in the Lok Sabha last month that his target for the BJP is 370 seats this time, with the larger National Democratic Alliance crossing the 400 mark.

Read Here: Modi, Hindutva, development and welfare pillars of BJP campaign in LS polls

The Congress is banking on a number of key factors in its bid to do well in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections that will be held in seven phases starting April 19.

INDIA bloc

A combined opposition to take on the BJP seems to be the best bet of the Congress and other political parties. In June, the Congress and 15 other parties met at Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar’s (then a Congress ally) residence to build an opposition bloc that rapidly grew to include 28 parties by the time the grouping met in Mumbai in September. In a subsequent meeting in Bengaluru, the bloc got a name: Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA).

The new front took inspiration from the United Progressive Alliance that the Congress led, but for better electoral impact, opposition leaders decided to stitch a pre-poll bloc and resolved to share seats.

In its initial months, the opposition grouping looked promising. The parties identified common issues and started seat negotiations. The Aam Aadmi Party and Congress even won a mayoral election in Chandigarh. The idea was to try to consolidate the vote shares of different opposition parties in a state and fight against the BJP.

Read Here | Narrative to identity: Key factors at play in LS polls

“We were not together earlier. We could not put common candidates in each seat and Modi took the advantage…We have arrived at a conclusion and an organisation has been formed. We will start the seat sharing arrangements by accommodating everyone. There will be no hurdle,” former Bihar chief minister Lalu Prasad said in Mumbai, summing up the objective of the alliance.

But trouble started mounting from January. Miffed by the slow response from the Congress on sharing seats, West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee announced on January 24 that her party Trinamool Congress would contest all 42 seats in the state.

Four days later, Kumar, a pivotal force of INDIA, dumped the Rashtriya Janata Dal, Congress and Left parties to again form an alliance with the BJP, giving a major jolt to the united opposition’s prospects in Bihar, a state that accounts for 40 Lok Sabha seats.

Jayant Choudhury’s Rashtriya Lok Dal, a party with a footprint in western Uttar Pradesh, was the next to quit INDIA. It joined the NDA on January 12. Congress’ efforts to bring Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati into the alliance didn’t work and now the alliance in Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha, is limited to only Samajwadi Party and Congress. The SP has given one seat to Trinamool.

Election 2024: Nearly a billion people to vote in 1.05 million booths; results to be announced on June 4

Even as the alliance suffered roadblocks in key states, the seat discussions in some other places such as J&K, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu have made no headway so far. Moreover, the allies have ruled out an alliance in Punjab and Kerala, substantially limiting the scope of the bloc.

Congress’s guarantees

In the UPA era, the Congress focused on right-based laws. This time, the principal opposition party will offer mega sops to social groups such as women, tribals, youth, farmers and workers. The party is also promised a caste census if it comes to power.

“Championing the cause of the underprivileged, Congress’ policies such as Minimum Wage Act, MNREGA, EPF Act are testament to our commitment to ensure decent standards of living, fair wages and social security for the weaker sections,’’ Karnataka’s deputy chief minister DK Shivakumar said on Saturday, hours before the poll schedule was announced. “Carrying forward the legacy, Congress announced ‘Shramik Nyay (justice to workers)’ and ‘Hissedari Nyay (justice to stakeholders)’.”

Watch: Congress, TMC Target EC Over 7-Phase Polls; Telangana CM Stung By 'Bade Bhai' Modi

The party has promised to give 1 lakh annually to poor women, 50% reservation for women in government jobs, a constitutional amendment to raise the 50% cap on reservations, fill up 3 million public sector jobs and offer a social security net for unorganized workers.

Party president Mallikarjun Kharge has pinned hopes on the poll promises. “2024 Lok Sabha elections will open the ‘Door of NYAY’ for India. This would be perhaps the last chance to save Democracy and our Constitution from Dictatorship. ‘We the people of India’ will together fight against hatred, loot, unemployment, price rise and atrocities,” he said on Saturday.

Rahul Gandhi’s role

The Gandhi scion, now 53, has failed to deliver in two national elections, including one campaign under his leadership. A section of the Congress wants to project party chief and a prominent Scheduled Caste face Kharge as the prime ministerial candidate. But recent events suggest that a prominent section of the party retains the focus on Gandhi, who is also by far the most popular leader in the organization and has a say in most of its decisions. But too much focus on Gandhi, as it has happened in the past two polls, helps the BJP package the election as a Modi vs Rahul Gandhi battle.

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