Delayed by a week, monsoon set to hit Kerala tomorrow
Meteorologists on Thursday said conditions are favourable for the onset of monsoon over Kerala by Saturday, a week after its normal onset date.
But the advancement of monsoon is likely to weaken following the onset, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. Farmers have been advised to prepare for poor rainfall in June.
Large parts of the country are parched because of below-normal pre-monsoon showers that ended in May with a 24% deficit over the long period average or LPA, the average rainfall received during monsoon months in the 1951-2000 period.
According to IMD, an east-west (change of wind direction from easterly to westerly) shear zone has formed across the Lakshadweep-MaldivesComorin area, which is very likely to shift northwards gradually.
“An off shore trough is very likely to also develop around June 8, off Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast. In association with these favourable conditions, southwest monsoon is very likely to set in over Kerala around June 8,” IMD said in its Thursday bulletin.
But rainfall in June will be significantly below normal, the IMD said.
“We are expecting normal rains only after June 20. After the onset on June 8, there will not be much progress. Rains will be delayed in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, for example. But for the entire monsoon season, we need not worry now,” said M Rajeevan Nair, secretary, ministry of earth sciences.
“Sowing should not start immediately. Farmers should prepare for the delay. Those working on water management should also plan for water rationing,” he added.
Mahesh Palawat, vice president (meteorology and climate change), Skymet Weather, said a cyclonic circulation had formed over south-east Arabian Sea, which would likely intensify into a low-pressure area and then into a depression.
“Winds will converge around this weather system and moisture will be pulled away from South Peninsula, leading to a decrease in rains around June 9 or 10. There may be rainfall in Kerala but monsoon will weaken over Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Anyway for June, we have forecast rains to be below normal at 77% of long period average (LPA),” he said. Already, rains have started over Kerala in the run-up to the onset of monsoon. The Kerala State Disaster Management Authority on Thursday issued an orange alert for heavy to very heavy rains in Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha and Ernakulam on June 10.
According to the IMD bulletin, conditions are likely to become favourable for the advance of the south-west monsoon into the Northeastern states in two-three days after the onset over Kerala.
The National Agromet Advisory Bulletin for June 1-13 said, “Monsoon will progress slowly after the onset, with subdued monsoon condition will remain during first half of June.”
A western disturbance was to bring rain and thundershowers to Delhi-National Capital Region on Thursday but IMD officials said it likely would not as it had already caused thundershowers in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
“The maximum temperature in Delhi will hover around 42-44 degrees Celsius. High temperatures will prevail in Delhi till June 11,” said Sunita Devi, senior scientist, IMD, adding it was difficult to say when the monsoon would arrive in Delhi.
“There is no one-to-one correlation between monsoon onset and monsoon advancement. It depends on synoptic conditions. A low pressure area is developing over south-east Arabian Sea, which will impact monsoon advancement. We expect monsoon to be erratic. The normal date for monsoon arrival in Delhi is June 29,” she said.
On Thursday, multiple deaths due to rain-related incidents were reported from Uttar Pradesh even as the change in weather brought respite from the heat. According to locals and district officials, three people died in Mainpuri, three in Kasganj and two in Etah.
Meanwhile, heat wave to severe heat wave conditions will continue over Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha for the next four-five days. The highest maximum temperature recorded on Wednesday was 47.9 degrees Celsius at Nowgong in east Madhya Pradesh.
On Wednesday, Chandrapur in Vidarbha recorded 43.6 degrees, Bhopal 45.4 degrees, Churu 47.3 degrees, Chandigarh 42.5 degrees, Delhi 42.5 degrees, Lucknow 42 degrees and Kanpur 42.6 degrees.