India logs extreme humid heat even during monsoon
A new report finds that India is experiencing extended summer conditions with extreme heatwaves and increased rainfall events, impacting lives and livelihoods.
Most of India’s districts are experiencing extreme humid heat even during monsoon months — June, July and September — according to a new report titled “Managing Monsoons in a Warming Climate”, which has contended that the country of 1.4 billion people now effectively has extended summer conditions.
The report, released ahead of the NYC Climate Week scheduled for September, states that over 84% of Indian districts are prone to extreme heatwaves, with 70% of them also witnessing increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events.
“The study also found that monsoon seasons in India are witnessing extended summer-like condition except on rainy days,” a statement by IPE Global, which released the report along with EsriIndia.
The frequency, intensity and unpredictability of these extreme heat and rainfall events have risen in recent decades. Extreme heatwave days across the March-April-May (MAM) and June-July-August-September (JJAS) months has risen 15-fold in the last three decades. In the past decade alone, there has been a 19-fold increase in extreme heatwave days.
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The findings are based on both climate modelling and observed data from ISRO, IMD and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The analysis covered four seasons: January-February, March-April-May, June-July-August-September and October-November-December.
Experts said that such trends may only strengthen as the world warms further.
Abinash Mohanty, head of Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and the study’s author, said: “The current trend of catastrophic extreme heat and rainfall events are a result of 0.6 degree C temperature rise in the last century. El Nino is gaining momentum and making its early presence felt across the globe with India facing the extreme events of turbulence more in patterns than waves.”
He added, “Recent Kerala landslides triggered by incessant and erratic rainfall episodes and the cities getting paralysed with sudden and abrupt downpour is a testament that climate is changed. Our analysis suggests that 8 out of 10 Indians will be highly exposed to extreme events by 2036 and these numbers speak of volumes.”
“Around 65% of districts are recording extreme humid heat often temps over 35 degree C combined with high humidity. Only when it rains, temperatures fall marginally. We are also seeing a trend of spike in temperatures over hilly regions which is worrying for glacier disasters and landslides. Heat also leads to extreme rainfall,” added Mohanty.
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The report states, “We believe that, overall, India is witnessing an extended summer-like condition in the June, July, August, and September (JJAS) months. In particular, we found that districts located in the plains and in hilly regions are witnessing these trends — which has deterrent impacts on lives, livelihoods, and economic sectors.”
The land sensitivity assessment conducted by the authors found that more than 55% of land use and land cover (LULC) change in India is concentrated in hotspot districts. The authors also said that anthropocentric activities are contributing to this large-scale change in climatic patterns.
Some of the hotspot states that have been witnessing both extreme heatwaves and erratic incessant rainfall events are Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya and Manipur.
Further, in October, November and December (OND), more than 62% of heatwave-prone Indian districts have been witnessing erratic and incessant rainfall. The increase in atmospheric temperatures and humidity increases the likelihood of heatwaves globally, especially in tropical regions.
The authors of the report have recommended establishing a heat risk observatory (HRO) to help identify, assess and project chronic and acute heat risks at a hyper-granular level. This would better prepare against heat-related extremities such as urban heat islands, water stress, vector-borne diseases and crop loss. They also suggest devising risk financing instruments to mitigate heat risk and extreme rainfall events.
Krishna S Vatsa, member of the National Disaster Management Authority, said during the report’s launch, “Data is still sketchy. We need to improve more data to understand hazards. We need meteorological observational network on a taluka level and much better models for forecast.”
He added, “Early warning systems are very different across hazards. It’s also important to improve our response capacity be it in Kedarnath or Wayanad. Our allocations have increased 2.5 times for disaster management.”
Vatsa highlighted the new challenges India faces, including urban flooding, glacier disasters, landslides, flash floods and heat stress. He noted that India suffered huge losses in the Glacial Lake Outburst Flood in Sikkim last year.
“We have hundreds of glaciers. Now we need to categorise which are at risk or increasing. They are at a height of 5,000+ m. It’s a huge task to monitor them. At least 80 glaciers are at risk. We have to set up early warning systems there. We are planning 42 expeditions to these glaciers. Planning itself is a huge challenge,” Vatsa said.