India’s Covid-19 trajectory dips, with cases doubling in 6 to 8 days now

So far this week, the number of cases has gone up by 64 percent (between Sunday evening and Friday evening). This is a slower increase compared to the previous five days, when confirmed cases had risen by 76 percent.

India’s Covid-19 cases rose by 16 per cent over the last two days to 13,835 till Friday night, data from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare indicated. This is a relatively slower increase compared to the previous 48 hours, when the country’s case count rose 28 per cent to 11,933. On Saturday morning, however, the number of coronavirus positive cases stood at 14,378.

Despite India’s Covid-19 trajectory tapering slightly, it continues to be steeper compared to Asian peers such as Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, and Pakistan. India’s curve is flatter than that of several Western nations where the virus has claimed far more lives. (SONU MEHTA/HT PHOTO.)

The country’s doubling rate of Covid-19 positive cases has taken a dip and currently stands at 6.2 days, at some places 8 days instead of the earlier three days, the Union Health Ministry had said on Friday.

The dip in the coronavirus growth trajectory has a lot to do with the nationwide lockdown announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in March. The lockdown was later extended till May 3. Before the first phase of the lockdown, the doubling rate of Covid-19 cases was about 3 days, but according to data in the past 7 days, the doubling rate of cases now stands at 6.2 days. Doubling rate in 19 states and union territories are even lower than average doubling rate of the country, according to ministry data.

So far this week, the number of cases has gone up by 64 percent (between Sunday evening and Friday evening). This is a slower increase compared to the previous five days, when confirmed cases had risen by 76 percent.

Despite India’s Covid-19 trajectory tapering slightly, it continues to be steeper compared to Asian peers such as Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, and Pakistan. India’s curve is flatter than that of several Western nations where the virus has claimed far more lives. The country’s death toll as of Saturday morning is 480.

India’s case count is now roughly double of what it was eight days ago. This is a slower rate compared to a few days ago, when cases were doubling every four days. At the current rate of compounded growth, the number of cases could rise to 20,000 by Tuesday.

This Covid-19 trajectory needs to slow down further if India is to avoid getting its hospitals and other medical facilities overwhelmed in the next few months.

India’s death toll from the Covid-19 disease is rising at a faster pace, however, compared to the case count. The death toll on Friday evening was 452, double than what it was six days ago.

Maharashtra, which has been the worst-hit in the pandemic, leads in terms of the number of active cases of Covid-19, according to the health ministry update on Friday evening. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases.

The number of coronavirus patients in Maharashtra has already crossed the 3000 mark.

National capital Delhi has the second most number of positive cases (1707), closely followed by Madhya Pradesh (1,186).

Tamil Nadu also has a very high concentration of coronavirus positive patients.

These are current figures and the state-wise distribution could escalate in the coming days. Testing across states has been uneven and as testing gets ramped up with more testing facilities being introduced, more Covid-19 cases could come to light in states where reported cases have been low so far.