Keeping up with UP | In the land of Mandal and Mandir, what will voters go for?

As the BJP oscillated between Mandal and Mandir, communal lines remained in sharp existence, but the forward-backward tussle continued as well

In August 1990, the National Front government at the centre, headed by late Prime Minister Vishwanath Pratap Singh implemented a quota for socially and educationally backward classes. It was a political masterstroke. A Rajput himself, here Singh was, espousing the cause of the OBCs, a move opposed on the streets and in the Supreme Court. On November 16, 1992, a nine-member bench upheld the government order, the same year the Babri Masjid was demolished in Ayodhya on December 6.

Ask the candidates of any political party and most describe the poll situation as very fluid. They insist that the Indian voter is too smart for doles, development promises and temples (ANI)

When Singh made the announcement from the ramparts of Red Fort on Independence Day, the country was witnessing an aggressive movement under the banner of Vishwa Hindu Parishad for the liberation of the Ram Janmabhoomi. In one fell swoop, Singh had completely changed Indian politics.

Interestingly, it was the Janata Party government, with the Jan Sangh, the precursor to the BJP, as an ally, that had set up the Mandal Commission in 1979. The Commission submitted its report in 1983, when the BJP in its current form was just beginning to take root, but saw the light of day in August 1990, by which time a countrywide movement to mobilize Hindus around the temple movement was already in motion. Singh, facing the political onslaught of Hindu consolidation used Mandal as a spanner in the works of their ambitious plan. It worked, and ended upper-caste domination at the top of Indian politics.

Till then, the Prime Ministers of India largely came from the Brahmin community. Many now believe that the BJP’s Atal Bihari Vajpayee may prove to be the last Brahmin PM for many years, given how the political sociology of the country has turned after the Mandal commission. Singh cleverly introduced a wedge in Hindu consolidation by emphasizing caste and class that has long outlived the efforts of BJP stalwart LK Advani’s ten thousand kilometre-long yatra from Somnath to Ayodhya in 1992.

As the BJP oscillated between Mandal and Mandir, communal lines remained in sharp existence, but the forward-backward tussle continued as well. Prodded by leaders like Govindacharya to change its chehra and chintan (faces and ideology), seen till then as a Brahmin party, the BJP pivoted to projecting leaders from the backward classes in the politically crucial states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.

Since the arrival of Mandal then, the BJP in Uttar Pradesh has contested only one election under the leadership of an upper caste leader, Rajnath Singh in 2002 which resulted in a fractured mandate. This despite the fact that much like Nitish Kumar, the current Chief Minister of Bihar, he tried to raise the aspirations of the extremely backward classes and Dalits.

Uttar Pradesh has 52% OBC’s and 21% Dalits and barring three upper-caste CMs, every chief minister since Mandal in 1989 till the arrival of Yogi Adityanath in 2017 have either been OBC or Dalit.

Come 2022, the BJP has once again decided to gamble on an upper caste Chief Minister in Yogi Adityanath, though this of course is with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, himself an OBC, looming large in the BJP’s edifice. And amid vociferous demands for a caste census, originating from adjoining Bihar, the BJP has laid focus on wooing OBCs, confident that it will retain the support of the upper castes despite some rumblings in those quarters.

In cabinet expansions, both at the Centre and in the state, the BJP high command has followed Mayawati’s formula of not only giving representation to various OBCs but also flaunting their castes when they do so. Political analyst Professor Badri Narayan describes the BJP in Uttar Pradesh as an OBC party headed by a Rajput chief minister. “It will weaken the Mandal impact on politics,” he said.

So, how then will this play out for the BJP in the 2022 polls?

The BJP, determined to retain power, is putting together all their cards – caste identity, religious sentiment and economic aspiration. Prof Badri Narayan opines that Samajwadi Party national president “represents Yadavs and not OBCs”. “Second, the BJP has penetrated the OBC conglomerate. Though Akhilesh is trying to rope in support of non-Yadav castes, he may still not get full advantage of Mandal.”

On his part, Yadav has made some sharp alliances with elections on the anvil, trying to shed the “Muslim-Yadav” pigeon hole that his party is susceptible to. He has found an ally in Om Prakash Rajbhar, as well as with Patels and Jats in western Uttar Pradesh. There have also been several influential Brahmin leaders from eastern UP that have joined the SP. Former SP minister Abhishek Mishra says, “The BJP is spending from government funds. But we are also promising financial support to various sections and have a proven record of keeping our word.”

On brahmin leaders in eastern Uttar Pradesh joining the SP, political analyst Shivanand Tiwari argues that “hinduvaad” has usurped “brahminism”. “The brahmins dominated the political space till late Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s days—thereafter, the Brahmins moved to the BJP as they don’t ride a sinking boat. The death of their veteran leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee did create a vacuum, but by then the OBCs had started asserting themselves. Now Narendra Modi is a backward class leader and takes care of forwards as well.”

There is also a section that believes that an active Congress can take away a chunk of disgruntled Brahmins, but only if the communities anger against Yogi plays a secondary role to the assertion of their religious identities. To plug gaps in their caste calculus, the BJP has also focused on raising economic aspiration, and issues of Hindu identity. The Prime Minister has been inaugurating projects and laying foundation stones apart from the mega show of launching the Kashi Vishwanath Corridor in his Lok Sabha constituency of Varanasi.

Earlier, on February 24, the Prime Minister had launched the ambitious Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi scheme transferring the first instalment of ₹2,000 each to over one crore farmers from Yogi Adityanath’s home town of Gorakhpur.

He had specifically countered loan waivers, describing them as easy and convenient. “We did not commit the sin of distributing ‘revaris’ for political or electoral benefit,” he said

However, the fact remains that doles have paid political dividends across India. Subsidised rice, direct cash benefits and cheap gas have turned elections in the past in favour of ruling parties unless there are strong winds against the incumbent dispensation. Many farmers are even of the view that the dole of ₹6000 may not be a big enough allurement to get their support.

Ask the candidates of any political party and most describe the poll situation as very fluid. They insist that the Indian voter is too smart for doles, development promises and temples. A BJP MLA from East UP said, “Akhilesh had the aircraft land on Agra-Lucknow Expressway and he lost the elections. Now the BJP has done the same with an Air Force plane landing on the Poorvanchal Expressway on November 16. The primary voter is the poorest of the poor who is happy getting ration but also knows this lasts till the elections.”

Summing up, the MLA said that people were silent, intently listening to everyone. This explains the crowds at rallies this election season, but at this stage what issue they pick as pivotal is still up in the air.