Ladakh: Close fight expected between a Shia leader from Kargil and the Leh-based BJP candidate

The triangular contest in the constituency will be between Congress candidate Tsering Namgyal, the BJP’s Tashi Gyalson and independent candidate Hanifa Jan

The strategic Ladakh Lok Sabha constituency, which votes on May 20, is ready for a triangular contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress and an independent candidate from the Shia-dominated Kargil district

Tsering Namgyal (left) and Haji Hanifa Jan (right) (HT File)

The triangular contest in the constituency, which shares its borders with China and Pakistan, will be between Congress candidate Tsering Namgyal, leader of the opposition in Leh Autonomous Hill Development Council, the BJP’s Tashi Gyalson, chairman-cum-chief executive councillor of the Leh hill council, and independent candidate Hanifa Jan who was the former president of the National Conference’s (NC) Kargil unit.

Given the rapidly changing political dynamics in the constituency, political observers and voters foresee a close contest between Jan and BJP’s Gyalson.

The Ladakh Lok Sabha constituency goes to polls on May 20 in the fifth phase; Leh is a Buddhist-majority district while Kargil has a higher Shia Muslim population.

Prominent political analyst Zafar Choudhary said the BJP, which, until recently was considered “down and out”, because of the protracted agitations in Ladakh over the issue of the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution and statehood, was “back in the contest”.

“In the last 10 years, BJP built a narrative that they alone can fulfil the aspirations of the region and Ladakh’s old demand from 1947 of carving out a separate UT out of J&K was fulfilled by none other than the BJP in 2019,” said Choudhary.

“Then protracted agitations over the Sixth Schedule and statehood followed after BJP’s U-turn. Consequently, the party dropped incumbent MP Jamyang Tsering Namgyal and fielded Tashi Gyalson, an advocate, who is popular among Buddhists and Muslims as well. I don’t see it as a major triangular contest. To me, it appears to be a direct contest between Leh and Kargil…more between Buddhists and Muslims,” added Choudhary.

“Hanifa Jan, who in his election manifesto, has accorded top priority to Sixth Schedule, statehood, unemployment, and one more Lok Sabha seat for Ladakh, is going to win because Kargil has more voters than Leh and the fight between Congress and BJP in Leh would benefit Jan,” said Akbar Ali, 33, a voter from Kargil.

Leader of the Kargil Democratic Alliance (KDA), Sajjad Hussain Kargili, who has backed out of the race in support of Jan, said: “Now, it is a straight contest between Jan and BJP’s Gyalson. Congress is nowhere in the picture. The Kargil unit of the Congress is also supporting Jan”.

Jan could win by a margin of 10,000 to 20,000 votes, Kargili said, adding that in case Jan’s votes get divided then Congress (Kargil unit) would be squarely held responsible.

It may be noted here that earlier, in an unexpected development, the Kargil unit of the Congress decided to support Jan in total contravention to the party high command’s candidate Tsering Namgyal.

As part of the seat-sharing agreement between the National Conference (NC) and Congress, Ladakh had gone to the Congress, which nominated Namgyal. However, Kargil units of the NC and Congress had announced Jan as their consensus candidate. The entire unit of the NC resigned after party president Farooq Abdullah asked them to support INDIA bloc candidate Namgyal.

The district of Kargil has 7,049 more voters than the Buddhist-dominated Leh district; Leh district has 88877 voters and Kargil 95926.

“After months of trouble, BJP is back in the contest. Though Jan’s probability of winning is higher because of more voters in Kargil and evolving polarisation between Leh and Kargil, BJP’s tactics of fielding Tashi Gyalson has, to some extent, soothed frayed nerves of the people and has brought BJP back in the contest,” Choudhary added.

Jan is the lone candidate contesting from the Shia-dominated Kargil district and therefore, is banking on the consolidation of the votes in the region.

The Islamia School, Imam Khomeini Memorial Trust and other religious organisations of Kargil have also extended support to Jan, who seems to enjoy the confidence of KDA as well.

Ladakh Buddhist Association president Chering Dorje Lakrook said that Jan had a strong chance of winning the seat.

“Given the triangular contest, it appears that the Kargil candidate will win because the division of votes looks imminent in Leh but not in Kargil. Hanifa Jan’s chances to win are 90% unless something unusual happens,” said Lakrook.

The vast and sparsely populated Ladakh Lok Sabha constituency spans an area of 173.266 sq km. The election authorities have set up 598 polling stations.

In 2014, BJP candidate Thupstan Chhewang won the seat followed by party candidate Jamyang Tsering Namgayal in 2019.