E-Paper
Monsoon withdraws from parts of Rajasthan later than usual: IMD
The monsoon is critical for India’s economy as 51% of the country’s farmed area accounting for 40% of production is rain-fed while 47% of the population is dependent on agriculture for livelihood
The monsoon has withdrawn later than usual from parts of Rajasthan, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday even as there remained a 6% rainfall deficiency across the country. September 17 is the normal date for the withdrawal.
The IMD said rainfall was likely to continue in parts of eastern and central India. There has been 17% rain deficiency in east and northeast India, 1% in central India, 9% in the Peninsula, and 2% excess rainfall in northwest India.
Rainfall of 90 to 95% of the long-period average (LPA) is considered to be below normal. Less than 90% of LPA is considered deficient. Monsoon rainfall between 96 to 104% is considered normal.
The monsoon revived in September after El Nino badly impacted it in August. There was about a 95% chance of 2023 being the warmest or the second-warmest year on record. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has warned that more months possibly stretching into 2024 could continue the heat trend as the El Nino weather pattern was expected to remain strong.
Temperatures were expected to be above normal during a strong El Nino for the post-monsoon period of October-November-December. El Nino causes an unusual warming of waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This has a high correlation with warmer summers and weaker monsoon rains in India.
The monsoon is critical for India’s economy. As much as 51% of India’s farmed area accounting for 40% of production is rain-fed while 47% of the country’s population is dependent on agriculture for livelihood.
IMD said certain meteorological conditions for the withdrawal have been met over the last five days. There has been no rainfall during this period while an anti-cyclonic circulation has developed, and water vapour imagery indicated dry weather conditions over the southwest Rajasthan. The line of monsoon withdrawal line passes through Nokhra, Jodhpur, and Barmer in Rajasthan.
A cyclonic circulation was lying over southeast Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood. A trough from the circulation was to the western Assam in lower tropospheric levels. Another cyclonic circulation was over south Chhattisgarh. A trough was running from this cyclonic circulation to south Konkan in middle tropospheric levels.
A cyclonic circulation was likely to form over the north Andaman Sea and neighbourhood around September 29. Under its influence, a low-pressure area was expected to form over the north Andaman Sea and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal during the subsequent 24 hours. Thereafter, it was likely to move west-northwestwards with the possibility of gradual intensification, IMD said.
The post-monsoon tropical cyclone season begins in October. But meteorologists said it is too early to say with certainty how far the system would intensify and what would be its track. An IMD official said it can take two directions. “One is to move towards Myanmar in which case its intensification may not be strong... another is to move across the Bay of Bengal. The sea surface temperatures are high over the Bay of Bengal with 31°C over some pockets. If the system travels over warm waters for several days, it will most certainly intensify. The system in any case will intensify to a depression.”
