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New order pitched against old guard in Maharashtra
Two days before the assembly elections were announced, chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, 49, wrapped up his statewide tour, Maha Janadesh Yatra, in which he travelled
Two days before the assembly elections were announced, chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, 49, wrapped up his statewide tour, Maha Janadesh Yatra, in which he travelled through 155 assembly constituencies to reach out to the people. Sharad Pawar, 78, chief of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), is also travelling across Maharashtra for several weeks, trying to connect with the people and revive the party organisation that is in a bad shape following a rout in the Lok Sabha elections.
The tussle between the two symbolises the fight between the new order and the old guard.
Since 1960, when the state was formed, Maharashtra was largely ruled by the Congress or parties that shared a similar ideology. As such, politics and governance did not see major change. It was largely based on agriculture, the cooperative sector and rural economy although several chief ministers promoted industry in the state.
Even the first Shiv Sena-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government, in office between 1995 and 1999, did not deviate much from this brand of politics; it was supported by about 40 independent legislators, many of whom came from the Congress or similar backgrounds. In the past three decades, Maharashtra politics largely revolved around Pawar and Shiv Sena founder Bal Thackeray.
But now, a new duo of leaders has come to dominate state politics. Things started changing in 2014 when Fadnavis was sworn in after 15 years of Congress-NCP rule. In the past five years, he ensured that the old system supporting Pawar and the Congress did not retain its hegemony. The cooperative sector that formed the backbone of the Congress-NCP support base is fighting a raft of legal cases over allegations of corruption and irregularities. Another political player who assumed significance in the past five years is Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray, who took over the reins of the party from his late father, Bal Thackeray. If the saffron combine returns to power, the duo will continue to dominate the political stage in Maharashtra.
Two factors have helped the new order: The growing influence of urban voters and changes in the agriculture-based rural economy.
Roughly half of the state’s population lives in urban areas and more than 100 out of 288 assembly constituencies are in urban or semi-urban areas. While the Shiv Sena was always seen as an urban party, the BJP has been quick to strengthen its base in these areas. The state government’s focus on building urban infrastructure, the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the reach of social media has helped Fadnavis capture the imagination of the urban voter.
At the same time, the rural population is looking for a way out of farm-based jobs because of erratic rainfall and fluctuating crop prices. This has led to a decline in the influence of the cooperative sector, which was already in trouble due to mismanagement, and hurt the political base of Pawar and the Congress.
“The BJP-Sena have been quick to adopt the strategies with the changing times. The Congress-NCP failed to do the same and hence suffered a setback. They need to realise why the urban voter is standing solidly behind Fadnavis-Thackeray,” said Hemant Desai, a political analyst.
“The Congress-NCP leaders focused on rural areas but did not pay attention to urban and semi-urban areas. The generational shift in state politics is coinciding with these changes and it suits the BJP-Sena better,” he added.
