Number Theory: Dim picture of India’s demographic dividend

Government surveys such as the Periodic Labour Force Survey suggest that 75% of India's 14-18 year olds live in rural areas

Around 10% of India’s 1.4 billion strong population is believed to be in the 14-18 year age-group. While we do not have the updated census numbers, government surveys such as the Periodic Labour Force Survey suggest that 75% of these 14-18 year olds live in rural areas. The fortunes of these young people will have a large bearing on not just their own but also India’s economic progress. The prospects of this cohort, if the second Beyond Basics Annual Status of Education Report are to be believed, should be a matter of great concern. Here are five charts which summarise what is wrong with the education of 14-18 year olds in India’s rural hinterland.

The findings indicate that schools are not of much help in educating students about really promising avenues of work or career building. (Reuters)

Dim picture of India’s demographic dividend

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  Learning indicators continue to be abysmal, and in some cases, they are worse than pre-pandemic levels

  One in four of these students cannot read a Class 2 level text fluently in their regional language. More than half struggle with division (3-digit by 1-digit) problems. A little over half can read sentences in English (57.3%). Of those who can read sentences in English, almost three-quarters can tell their meanings (73.5%). A comparison of the 2023 Beyond Basics report with the 2017 version of the report shows that the ability to divide and read a sentence has stayed roughly the same for the age group, but only because girls performed somewhat better than the last round and boys performed worse. However, both girls and boys understood the sentence they read in English less than in the last round. To be sure, the two rounds of the survey are not strictly comparable because the districts surveyed are not exactly the same in them. The numbers are, therefore, only indicative of a national trend.
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  Education is not just poor quality, it is also failing to interest students

  The report shows that almost one in four adolescents in the 17-18 age group has discontinued education. Just about one in four of this cohort has completed Class 12. To be sure, there is good reason to believe that enrolment rates could be higher for relatively well-off sections of this population. For example, the 2017-18 National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) report on education shows that enrolment in higher education increases significantly with income levels. However, what is most alarming in the ASER report is the fact that the single largest reason for 17-18-year-olds dropping out from the formal education system is ‘lack of interest’ rather than any material constraint. To be sure, this accounts for just 18.9% of the 23.9% population in the 17-18 age group students who have discontinued education. However, the fact that it is ranked ahead of factors such as financial constraints or even failure speaks a lot about the quality of school education in rural India. This number could appear to be a bit counter-intuitive in the light of an increase in aspiration to study beyond Class 12 between the first and the second Beyond Basics ASER report, but other data points in the report suggest what is wrong with our higher secondary schools.
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  Do schools shape aspirations?

  21% of the respondents in the survey did not have a clear aspiration about the kind of work they wanted to do in the future. Among those who reported having a clear goal, the aspirations were generic and gendered such as police and army for boys and teachers and doctors or girls. Less than 2% of the respondents listed a private sector job (excluding generic jobs such as engineers and doctors) as their aspiration which is where the best salaries are today. This suggests that schools are not of much help in educating students about really promising avenues of work or career building. Another data point in the report brings to the fore the challenge facing India’s young rural students in achieving their career goals. More than 45% of respondents who had a stated career goal did not know anyone (in the immediate or extended family and acquaintance or their school or college) who was already in the profession they wanted to choose. Clearly, not having any guidance is a serious handicap in pursuing professional goals. The ASER report is categorical in underlining this. “Most participants (in an anonymous write-up after focus group discussions, FGDs) wrote that this was the first time anyone had ever asked them what they wanted to do or had an in-depth conversation with them on their work and educational aspirations. In almost all 56 FGDs across these 8 schools in three different districts, it was evident that opportunities to discuss future plans and possibilities were often non-existent,” the report said.