E-Paper
Why are Kerala Covid cases increasing? Study says every 100 people spreading infection to 111
A mathematical study has revealed Covid-19 infection has again gathered pace and spreading at a slightly higher rate across the country than the speed observed between May 15 and June 26 and Kerala still has the highest speed of the infection spread.
Kerala, the state with the highest load of active Covid-19 at present in the country, has the highest R-value, or reproductive factor, an analysis by the researchers at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai has revealed. The R-value in Kerala is 1.11, which means that one infected person is spreading the infection to more than one person, every 100 infected persons are spreading the virus to 111 people.
The overall R factor in the country in the last week of July has remained 0.95. How significant is the R factor? R factor is the number of people that can be infected by one Covid-infected person. This is a mathematical calculation. When the number is less than 1, for example, 0.95, it means that every 100 infected people pass on the infection to 95 other individuals. Scientists have explained that as long as the number is less than 1, new infections will be lesser than existing infections and there will be an overall decline in the number of cases.
Explained: Does Kerala have lowest immunity against Covid-19?
According to the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, while the national R-value is lower than 1, Kerala's R-value is higher than 1 and is the highest in the country. Pune and Delhi's R-values are close to 1, while most of the northeast states have an R-value exceeding 1, the institute said adding that the R factor which climbed down after the peak of the second wave of the pandemic is again rising.
Week-wise R-factor in India
From March 9 to April 21: 1.37
From April 24 to May 1: 1.18
From April 29 to May 7: 1.1
From May 9 to May 11: 0.98
From May 14 to May 30: 0.82
From May 15 to June 26: 0.78
From June 20 to July 7: 0.88
From July 3 to July 22: 0.95
Overall, there has been an increase in the R factor in teh country, the figures reveal as between May 15 and June 26, the rate at which the virus spread was the lowest.
"India's overall active cases are fluctuating too much to get a reliable estimate, but data is pointing at a value close to 1. It may tip over either way in the coming few days," Sitabhra Sinha of the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, who is leading the team, told news agency PTI.
Going by Kerala's high R-value, which suggests that the infection is spreading rapidly in the state, experts are predicting that the Covid-19 situation in Kerala will continue like this for another few weeks.
(With PTI inputs)
