Once neck-and-neck, BJP now opens up big vote share lead on opposition alliance in UP
In 2014, the combined vote share of these three parties was 42.7%, compared to the 42.3% polled by the alliance of the BJP and Apna Dal . Out of the 73 seats won by the BJP-led alliance (71 by the BJP alone) in 2014, 38 were spoiler aided victories.Updated: May 24, 2019 08:36 IST
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faced its biggest challenge in the state of Uttar Pradesh in these elections. This was because of an alliance between the Samajwadi party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD).
In 2014, the combined vote share of these three parties was 42.7%, compared to the 42.3% polled by the alliance of the BJP and ApnaDal.
Out of the 73 seats won by the BJP-led alliance (71 by the BJP alone) in 2014, 38 were spoiler aided victories. This means that the victory margin in these seats was less than the votes polled by the candidate finishing third.
This arithmetic created a perception that the BJP would be vulnerable to the SP-BSP-RLD alliance. The 2019 results in the state are completely opposite to what the 2014 arithmetic suggested.
The BJP has increased its vote share from 42.6% to 49.55%. The combined vote share of the SP-BSP-RLD alliance has come down by 4.1 percentage points. Among the 62 seats won by the BJP, only 17 have been aided by spoilers.
Even if the Congress had joined the alliance, the combined opposition would have been theoretically ahead of the BJP in only 24 seats.
The fact that Congress President Rahul Gandhi lost to the BJP’s Smriti Irani in Amethi, suggests that the BJP has made a significant dent in the Congress’s support base in the state.
The BJP performed well in all regions except the East and Ruhelkhand regions, where it won eight of 16 seats and six of 12 seats.