Above-normal rainfall to reduce impact of Covid-19?

As the city settles into the summer, independent meteorologists have forecast above-normal rainfall this monsoon for Mumbai and its suburbs.

As the city settles into the summer, independent meteorologists have forecast above-normal rainfall this monsoon for Mumbai and its suburbs.

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The quantum of rain could reach 2,500mm during the four-month period (June to September), much above the seasonal average (2,317.2mm), and at par with the annual average (2,515mm for the entire year). The forecasts suggested that above-normal rain could help minimise the negative economic impact of the Covid-19 outbreak.

The unofficial forecasts come ahead of the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) official one expected between April 15 and 20.

Sridhar Balasubramanian, associate professor, IDP Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay (IIT-B), predicted that the southwest monsoon could make early landfall over Kerala around May 28-30, while the onset over Mumbai is expected between June 11 and 13, much earlier than last year’s June 25.

The normal onset date for Kerala has been June 1, and June 10 for Mumbai till last year. IMD will be announcing this year’s onset dates later this month.

“A countrywide above-normal monsoon is expected at 100-105% of the long period average (LPA). While south India can expect excess rain, north India may end in deficit,” Balasubramanian said. India defines average or near-normal rainfall as rainfall between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 89cm for four months.

“This means good water supply for most parts of India, which could minimise the negative impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on the country’s economy as it is largely dependent on agricultural production,” said Balasubramanian.

Independent meteorologist and PhD researcher at the University of Reading, UK, Akshay Deoras said that rainfall during the first half of 2019 and the entire 2018 monsoon season was strongly influenced by the presence of El Niño which will be absent this season. “This should help the economy provided the supply chain of seeds and pre-sowing activities are not affected by the lockdown beyond mid-May,” he said.

Deoras said that the effect of the lockdown had nothing to do with below-normal maximum temperatures over Mumbai and surrounding areas over the last fortnight as opposed to hotter conditions during this period in previous years. “Typical maximum temperatures have not been observed in Mumbai and Maharashtra since the lockdown commenced,” said Deoras. “This is unlikely due to the lockdown since weather models, which had no idea of the sudden lockdown, were continuously projecting reduced temperatures in the past fortnight.”

Monthly forecast for Mumbai, Maharashtra

Monsoon onset over Mumbai could commence on a strong note in June and then get a little sluggish

Overall, June will have normal rain followed by a better performance in July and August but may be marginally below normal during September

The outlook for Maharashtra is good as coastal districts and central Maharashtra are expected to receive normal rain while Marathwada and Vidarbha may witness near-normal rain.

“This is likely to give a boost to the economic situation with above-average water levels in dams. However, we should be prepared for flood-like situations with the probability of heavy rains, especially during July and August,” said Balasubramanian.