Arabian Sea equals 117-yr-old record for most cyclones in yr

The Arabian Sea has recorded five cyclones this year, equalling a 117-year-old record for the most number of cyclones in a year, after the latest weather system intensified from a deep depression to tropical Cyclone Pawan on Thursday morning. India Meteorological Department (IMD) officials said Cyclone Pawan is likely to maintain its status till Thursday and weaken thereafter.

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The Arabian Sea usually witnesses a cyclone every year. The last time it witnessed five tropical cyclones was in 1902.

This year, before Pawan, there have been four cyclones – Vayu (June 10-17); Hikka (September 22-25); Kyarr (October 24-November 2); and Maha (October 30-November 7) — in the Arabian Sea.

“The frequency of cyclones has been abnormally high this year for the Arabian Sea, while it has been subdued for the Bay of Bengal. It is also a rare event to witness cyclones in December,” IMD’s director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.

The genesis of such weather systems depends on factors like sea surface temperature, wind pattern and triggering weather events, said Akshay Deoras, meteorologist and PhD researcher at the UK’s University of Reading. “The sea-surface temperature has increased in the Arabian Sea compared to the baseline of 1981-2010, but the low-pressure activity in the region continues to be erratic. This suggests the importance of atmospheric conditions as well as triggering weather events,” he said.

Experts said IMD’s data reaffirms warnings of increased frequency of cyclones in the Arabian Sea in coming years by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). “Rather than living in denial, policymakers need to take note of these developments and come up with climate-resilient policies for coastal cities as the situation is expected to worsen in coming years,” said Anjal Prakash, coordinating lead author of a report on climate change by IPCC.

Other meteorologists pointed out that 2019 has been a “hall-of-fame year” as far as weather dynamics are concerned. “From above-normal rain to record number of cyclones during onset and withdrawal of monsoon season, powerful super cyclones, twin cyclones in the Arabian Sea, and even rain during November and December, this has been a unique year,” said Sridhar Balasubramanian, associate professor with IIT-Bombay’s department of mechanical engineering.