What will be the impact of assembly elections on Maharashtra?

Ahead of 2019 polls, BJP will have to handle a demoralised cadre; Congress may not face much alliance trouble

As the results of assembly elections in five states kept coming in throughout the day, there was silence in the Maharashtra BJP camp with almost all top leaders of the party preferring to stay away from the media. The results in three BJP ruled states will be a reason to worry for the party top brass in Maharashtra as they prepare for two elections in 2019: Lok Sabha as well as Maharashtra assembly.

Congress workers celebrate in Thane on Tuesday. (Praful Gangurde)

The BJP will have to face a confident Congress-NCP led coalition on one hand and probably more aggressive Shiv Sena on the other.

“So far there was this perception that the Congress was going down and it couldn’t counter our election machinery. Several defeats in a row had demoralized the cadre of that party. This will now change. We will have to think how to handle that,”said a key Maharashtra BJP leader who did not wish to be named.

“We have been working as per certain planning. Now considering the pattern of voting in neighbouring states like MP and Chhattisgarh where we did not do well, we will make some changes in our plans. Besides, we will have to study if there are changes in the way voters are responding to PM Modi and agenda such as Ram temple,”he added.

Another major headache for the party could be dealing with its unruly ally, the Shiv Sena. With the BJP losing three states, the Sena is expected to become more aggressive. “The assembly elections could change the political atmosphere which also means the BJP will need us as an ally. If our leadership chooses to forge a pre-poll alliance, we will bargain hard,”said a top Sena leader who was earlier involved in negotiations with the BJP.

A section of top Sena leadership thinks the Sena will be getting advantage if the voters are unhappy with BJP. However another section thinks the party should join hands with the BJP.

Following the results the party will have to think if it should aim for that anti-BJP votes by going separately or consolidate the alliance votes since Congress-NCP will be a strong contender for these votes. “It is also possible that the voters who are unhappy may prefer the Congress-NCP coalition. It will be in the interest of both the parties if we go together but the call will be taken by Thackeray,”said the Sena functionary.

“It may not be in the interest of the Sena to go solo. It will have to align with the BJP. That is political reality,” opined Prof Surendra Jondhale, political analyst.

The Congress, on the other hand, was in an upbeat mood on Tuesday.

Following a string of defeats there was perception that Congress couldn’t attract voters and only regional parties could counter the BJP. “The results show that the Congress can take on the BJP and defeat it. No doubt that Congress will get a boost with this victory,”Jondhale said. For the Congress in the state, another positive outcome is that it will face less ally trouble. Several Congress leaders had apprehensions that NCP chief Sharad Pawar would ditch the party if it failed to win the assembly elections. Now the NCP is likely to stick to the Congress. Also, smaller parties will be keen to join its coalition.

The interesting battle will now be in Vidarbha where the BJP did well in both elections in 2014 and now banking on the region again in 2019. If the sentiments in this largely rural region are similar as neighbouring areas of MP and Chhattisgarh, it could be another problem for the BJP.