Active cases declining in Uttar Pradesh, say health officials

The Uttar Pradesh health department on Thursday said all 75 districts in the state had crossed their peak Covid-19 cases and were now witnessing a decline.

The Uttar Pradesh health department on Thursday said all 75 districts in the state had crossed their peak Covid-19 cases and were now witnessing a decline.

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Amit Mohan Prasad, UP additional chief secretary (health), on Thursday, however, cautioned people against laxity. He said that there was a decline in active cases too -- from a peak of 68,235 on September 17 to 29,131on October 22.

“Different districts had peaked at different times thanks to the efforts and different strategies that we had adopted,” Prasad, said. “This has resulted in active cases in the entire state decline over the past 35 days.”

HT analysed the seven-day average of daily cases data provided by the state health department from July 24 to October 22. It revealed that the peak for Ghaziabad was on September 17 at 263 average new cases over seven days and for Gautam Budh Nagar, it was September 11 with 219 cases.

The official records from the state Covid-19 control room also indicated that it was around mid-September when the two districts had the highest number of active cases and the highest single day spike of cases.

On September 14, Ghaziabad had the highest number of active cases at 2126 just two days after it hit the highest single day spike, at 303 cases. Gautam Budh Nagar district 2008 active cases on September 13, which was its highest, while its sharpest spike was on September 10 with 251 cases.

“Since then we saw a decline in active cases and our positivity rate has also declined. However, it is a time when residents have to take extra precautions against Covid-19 and continue it further,” said Suhas LY, district magistrate of Gautam Budh Nagar.

Ajay Shankar Pandey, Ghaziabad district magistrate did not respond to calls despite repeated attempts.

“We also observed that incidence of cases was very high during the middle of September. Thereafter there has been a decline in active cases and fresh cases. We are, however, continuing with regular testing and surveillance to check spread of infection,” said an officer from the Ghaziabad health department who wished not to be named.

Meanwhile, independent experts said that the state was following the national trend of decline in cases.

“But it cannot be surely said that further peaks my not come. Such instances have been observed in other countries as well. The infection may arrive again as long as we have a large proportion of susceptible population available,” said Dr Lalit Kant, the former epidemiology and communicable diseases head at the Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR). “A change in weather can also aggravate infection as micro-organisms are more active during low temperature. So, people must take every precaution even though the records show decline in number of new cases.”

“After mid of September there is decline in cases and the severity of infection has also reduced. We have observed that people are recovering fast. Still, we cannot say that the trend is of recovery has started even though the figures tell us that there is decline in number of fresh cases. So, wearing face masks, frequent hand washing and social distancing should be practiced for long and it would be better if we make it part of daily routine,” said Dr VB Jindal, former president of Indian Medical Association – Ghaziabad.