Game of Thrones: Researchers devise theory as to who’ll survive season 8

Press Trust of India | By, New Delhi
Dec 10, 2018 04:32 PM IST

Game of Thrones characters who keep switching allegiances and are ‘highborn’ are more likely to survive, research has shown.

Staying loyal leads characters of the popular TV series Game of Thrones to an early death, say scientists who analysed over 300 deaths in the show to decode who is more likely to survive the next season. The research paper, published in the journal Injury Epidemiology, shows that characters were more likely to survive if they switched their allegiances.

This image released by HBO shows Kit Harington, left, and Emilia Clarke on the season finale of Game of Thrones.(AP)
This image released by HBO shows Kit Harington, left, and Emilia Clarke on the season finale of Game of Thrones.(AP)

For example, Tyrion Lannister avoids death by switching allegiances between the houses Lannister and Targaryen.

Researchers at Macquarie University in Australia, evaluated the deaths of all important Game of Thrones characters across seven seasons of the show. The risk of death was also greater for characters that were 'lowborn' (not a Lord or Lady), compared to those that were 'highborn'.

"The risk of death is high among characters in Game of Thrones," Reidar Lystad, injury epidemiologist at the Australian Institute of Health Innovation.

"By the end of the seventh season, more than half of the characters had died -- 186 out of the 330 characters we included in this study -- with violent deaths being the most common by far," said Lystad. "While these findings may not be surprising for regular viewers, we have identified several factors that may be associated with better or worse survival, which may help us to speculate about who will prevail in the final season," he said.

Researchers found that the majority of deaths occurred in Westeros (80.1%), and the most common place of death was in the home.

The most common causes of death were injuries (73.7%), and particularly wounds of the head and neck, including 13 decapitations.


Only two deaths from natural causes occurred across the seven seasons of the show: Maester Aemon and Old Nan, who both died of old age. The remainder of deaths were from burns (11.8%) or poisonings (4.8%). The most common circumstances of deaths were assault (63%), operations of war (24.4%), and legal executions (5.4%).

The probability of dying within the first hour after first appearing on screen was around 14%. The survival time of characters ranged from 11 seconds to 57 hours and 15 minutes. The median survival time was estimated to be 28 hours and 48 minutes.

The researchers collected data on mortality and survival of 330 characters from all 67 episodes from seasons one to seven of Game of Thrones.

They recorded data on the sociodemographic status of the characters, including their sex, social status, type of occupation, religious affiliation, and allegiance, alongside their survival time, and the circumstances of their death.

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