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US midterms 2026: Why Republicans are defending more red states as Democrats expand their fight
US midterms 2026: Republicans are defending more red states as Democrats target Georgia, Kansas, Nebraska and traditionally safe House districts.
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Republicans are now defending Senate and House seats in states that were once considered safely Republican. Less than seven weeks before the 2026 midterm elections, the political battlefield has expanded into deeply Republican states and districts, including places that President Donald Trump carried by double-digit margins.
Georgia has become a major concern for Republicans. Republican strategists are privately discussing whether the Senate race there may have moved beyond the party’s reach. Democrat Jon Ossoff is running for re-election against Republican nominee Mike Collins, and Collins has trailed Ossoff in polls.
Republicans defend more red states
Georgia was once seen as one of the Republican-held Senate seats most likely to be competitive, but other races are now drawing Republican money too. Senate contests in Michigan and New Hampshire, where Democrats currently hold the seats, are also becoming more competitive for Republicans, according to strategists from both parties.
Georgia is also showing a major difference in campaign spending. As of Wednesday, it was the only one of the nine leading Senate battleground states where Republicans had not reserved more advertising money than Democrats, according to AdImpact data.
Some Republicans are discussing whether to move money away from Georgia and spend it elsewhere. At a recent donor meeting in Dallas, a presentation listed four Republican Senate candidates as key recruits: Ashley Hinson in Iowa, Michael Whatley in North Carolina, former Representative Mike Rogers in Michigan and former Senator John E. Sununu in New Hampshire.
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Collins was not included on that slide, according to an attendee who photographed it. Collins' campaign rejects the idea that Republicans are pulling back. Meyer Siegfried, a spokesman for Collins, said Republicans have continued investing in the race and called claims otherwise inaccurate.
Republicans are adding defenses in red states
Nebraska is another example of Republicans spending money in a state that was not expected to be a major Senate battleground. A new Republican super PAC called Cornhusker Majority reserved $3.7 million in advertising and began attacking independent candidate Dan Osborn, who is backed by Democrats.
Kansas is also receiving unusual Republican attention. Vice President JD Vance campaigned for Republican Senator Roger Marshall even though Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.
Marshall is facing Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton. Hamilton is the senior pastor of the largest United Methodist congregation in the United States. Marshall has started running ads against him, while another Republican-aligned super PAC linked to the artificial intelligence industry has also begun airing ads supporting Marshall.
Hamilton said Vance's visit showed Republicans were taking the race seriously. “The fact that they sent the vice president,” Hamilton said, was a sign that Republicans recognized the race was competitive.
Republicans are also trying to address rising fuel costs in farm states. Higher diesel prices are putting pressure on farmers, and Marshall wrote to the agriculture secretary this week asking the Trump administration to provide relief.
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Economic pressure is becoming a campaign issue
Republicans are dealing with voter anger over high prices. The New York Times reported that tariffs and the war with Iran are contributing to economic pressure that is creating problems for Republicans across the country. Gas and diesel prices are another problem for Republicans. Trump has said voters should not expect major relief at the gas pump before the midterms, according to The New York Times.
Republicans say the Iran war has also hurt their political position. Richard Hudson, the North Carolina Republican who leads the House Republican campaign operation, said the war with Iran was “not helpful” for the party. Hudson said Republicans also have a messaging problem. He argued that many voters who supported Trump do not know what the Republican-led Congress has accomplished. “A lot of voters don’t know the policies we passed,” Hudson said.
Poll shows Democrats with an advantage
A national poll showed Democrats entering the fall with a sizable advantage on the congressional ballot. A New York Times/Siena University poll found Democrats ahead of Republicans by nearly nine percentage points among voters on the congressional ballot.
Democratic leaders are pointing to the poll as evidence that Republicans are vulnerable. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said Republicans were facing serious risks in both the House and Senate. But control of Congress remains uncertain because many races are still close. Both parties consider numerous House and Senate contests to be tossups, meaning the overall congressional map remains fluid.
Democrats are targeting deep-red districts
Democrats are also expanding their own battlefield. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee says it is competing in 58 Republican-held House seats. Some of those districts are places where Trump won by large margins. Democrats are now contesting seats that Trump carried by as much as 20 points in 2024.
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Kentucky is one example of a traditionally Republican area now receiving Democratic attention. Trump's political operation has spent $637,000 on advertising in Kentucky's Sixth Congressional District, which Trump won by 15 points in 2024.
Democrats are also competing in a deep-red Colorado district. Navy veteran Eileen Laubacher is mounting a challenge against Republican Representative Lauren Boebert in a largely rural district that Trump won by 18 points. Laubacher is focusing on the cost of living. She said voters were angry about the rising costs of fuel and supplies and argued that higher expenses were making life more difficult for families.
Democrats say winning some of these deep-red districts could give them a larger House majority. These races may not decide control of Congress by themselves, but Democratic gains in traditionally Republican areas could increase the party's majority if they win enough seats.
The overall picture is therefore more competitive than the traditional red-state map suggests. Republicans are spending money defending Georgia, Kansas, Nebraska and deep-red House districts, while Democrats are pushing into areas Trump won comfortably. But economic concerns, fuel prices, the Iran war and Trump's standing are creating pressure in races that were previously expected to be safer for the party.
The final weeks of the 2026 midterms are likely to bring much more spending and advertising. With less than seven weeks left, both parties are expanding the number of seats they are contesting, making the congressional battlefield broader than it appeared earlier in the election cycle.
