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El Nino "very likely" in 2009: Australia
An El Nino weather pattern that could bring drought conditions to Australia's farmlands is "very likely" this year and could be officially declared within weeks, the Australian BOM said on Wednesday.
An El Nino weather pattern that could bring drought conditions to Australia's farmlands is "very likely" this year and could be officially declared within weeks, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said on Wednesday.
"Its very likely we will have an El Nino this year," David Jones, head of BOM climate analysis, told Reuters.
"At this stage we are not in a position to say we have an El Nino but in the coming weeks, if the current trends continue, we will be an El Nino event very shortly," Jones said.
Australia is the world's fourth-largest wheat exporter and its grain production is still recovering from the worst drought in more than 100 years that reduced the 2006/07 crops to just 10.6 million tones and the 2007/08 crops to 13.0 million tones.
Its crop is currently experiencing a second strong year and is expected to be between 21 and 23 million tones this year.
El Nino, meaning "little boy" in Spanish, is driven by an abnormal warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, and creates havoc in weather patterns across the Asia-Pacific region.
Scientists have linked it with Australian droughts. Warmer, moist weather moves towards the east, leaving drier weather in the western Pacific and Australia.
The bureau's latest El Nino update issued on Wednesday found that the eastern Pacific Ocean was continuing to warm and trade winds were continuing to weaken.
"The shift towards El Nino is certainly continuing and it's got some significant momentum," said Jones.
In its last two reports, the bureau said the odds of an El Nino forming were above 50
percent, which was more than double the normal risk of the event.
Jones said that the chances of an El Nino were now so great that percent odds were irrelevant, adding if an El Nino is declared soon then weather officials will probably agree that it started in May.
"El Nino is a little bit like recession, you are in it before you can say you have one. If it continues as it is now, the historians will say the El Nino started in May," said Jones.
The Climate Prediction Center in the United States said in June that conditions were favourable for a switch to El Nino conditions during June to August.
