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Ellenabad bypoll: INLD wins but BJP-JJP also gain
The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) which scraped through on Tuesday to retain the Ellenabad assembly seat in Sirsa salvaged its reputation
The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) which scraped through on Tuesday to retain the Ellenabad assembly seat in Sirsa salvaged its reputation.
The win would mean a re-entry for Abhay Singh Chautala, son of former chief minister Om Prakash Chautala, in the state assembly as INLD’s sole public representative.
The ruling BJP-JJP combine did give a scare to Abhay, who had quit the seat earlier this year in protest against the three central agri-marketing laws. The BJP, in particular, will be happy to finish a close second in light of the strong Opposition it has been facing from the farm unions.
The assembly constituency bordering Rajasthan has traditionally been a stronghold of former chief minister Om Prakash Chautala and was the only seat won by the INLD post a split in the 2019 assembly polls.
Good and bad news for INLD
There was some good and some bad news for the INLD. The party managed to increase its vote share in this bypoll by 5.63% as compared to 2019 assembly polls which should warm their hearts.
But its margin of victory came down from 11,922 in 2019 to 6,739 this time (a loss of 5,183 votes). The reason for decrease in Abhay’s victory margin was primarily due to the gains the ruling BJP-JJP made in terms of vote share.
The BJP’s vote share saw a 9.1% increase in the bypoll as compared to the 2019 general elections.
In fact, the Congress saw a 9.7% erosion of its vote share in the bypoll which arithmetically can be co-related to the 9.1% gain made by the BJP-JJP combine.
“It seems that a chunk of Congress voters, possibly the Scheduled Caste, gravitated towards the ruling alliance. The JJP candidate in 2019 got about 6,500 votes and those too added up the numbers for alliance candidate Gobind Kanda, a moneybag,” said a political analyst.
The BJP-JJP candidate scored well in the urban pockets of the constituency. This was evident from the outcome of rounds 8, 9 and 10 (urban pockets) of counting, the only three rounds of total 16 where Kanda led (by about 5,195 votes).
Will INLD’s win give impetus to the farm stir?
Prof Ashutosh Kumar, a political scientist from the Panjab University, Chandigarh, said Chautala’s victory may encourage the farmers to dabble in electoral politics, particularly in poll-bound Uttar Pradesh. “The bypoll result may have implications for western Uttar Pradesh,” Prof Kumar said.
‘Silent rejection of farm protest’
Prof Kumar said the fact that the BJP-JJP combine increased its vote share and unexpectedly performed well in the bypoll indicated that there were voters who may not be vocal but silently lend support to them.
“One may perceive that the farm protest has a widespread appeal and support. But the lingering protest can also have a counter-productive reaction where people remain muted but express their rejection or dissatisfaction in terms of votes,” he added.
