Delhi's Covid-19 positivity rate jumps to 10.2%; 7,897 new cases recorded

There were 7,897 new cases of coronavirus disease and 39 deaths due to the infection reported on Saturday, according to the daily health bulletin released by the Delhi government.

Delhi’s positivity rate – proportion of samples that test positive – jumped to 10.2% on Saturday, registering a double digit ratio for the first time in 138 days since November 24. There were 7,897 new cases of coronavirus disease and 39 deaths due to the infection reported on Saturday, according to the daily health bulletin released by the Delhi government.

The city recorded 77,374 tests on Saturday as compared to 89,334 tests conducted daily on average over the last seven days. (Sanchit Khanna/HT Photo)

Experts had expected the number of cases to cross the previous peak of the city of 8,593 cases reported on November 11 when the city saw its third surge in cases. However, the drop in the cases as well as the sudden increase in positivity rate, which is representative of the ongoing transmission of the infection, could be because of fewer Covid-19 test conducted.

The city recorded 77,374 tests on Saturday as compared to 89,334 tests conducted daily on average over the last seven days. The daily number of tests crossed the 100,000 mark twice within the week.

“Based on the known natural history of the infection, the cases are likely to continue the increasing trend till April end; the infection usually follows a 12-week course, with the decline starting at around six week. If the numbers stabilise and remain almost same for five to seven days, we will know that we have reached the peak and the decline will start,” said Dr SK Sarin, director, Institute of Liver and Biliary Sciences. He headed Delhi government’s initial committee on control and management of Covid-19.

He expressed concern over the increasing number of deaths. The average number of deaths recorded each day almost tripled over the last one week. Delhi reported 25 Covid-19 deaths on average daily during the last seven days as compared nine the week before and six the week before that.

With a high number of cases, the case fatality ratio – proportion of deaths among positive cases – continues to be low at 0.41% average over the last seven days. “There is no evidence to suggest that the infection this time is milder. However, there is less fatality as compared to last year because now people are better aware about the infection and come to the hospital on time; most of them have pulse oximeter and monitor their oxygen saturation continuously. In addition, the hospitals have also finalised their treatment protocols, they know what works when. However, the deaths will continue to increase at the moment. The peak for the number of death usually comes seven to ten days after the number of cases peaks,” said Dr GC Khilnani, former head of the department of pulmonology at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences.

The number of hospitalisations have also doubled over the last seven days from 2,727 recorded on April 4 to 5,398 on April 10. The Delhi government has repeatedly increased the number of beds earmarked for Covid-19 in government and private hospitals over the week.